NCAAB Odds, Pick for Kansas State vs Texas Tech

Below, we have NCAAB odds and a pick for Kansas State vs. Texas Tech.

Kansas State is building itself quite the NCAA tournament resume, despite still ranking outside of the top 50 in both KenPom and Bart Torvik.

The Wildcats have made mincemeat out of arguably the two worst teams in the Big 12 — handling UCF at home and West Virginia in Morgantown — but now they face arguably their toughest challenge to date.

Texas Tech is rolling under new head coach Grant McCasland and also sits 2-0 in the best conference in America. Despite losing starting forward Devan Cambridge to injury, the Red Raiders have persevered and found a new gear on offense.

Their home court is known as one of the best in the country, and even in a down 2022-23 season, they still triumphed over the future-three-seeded Wildcats in Lubbock.

K-State’s offense hasn’t been pretty this season, but it's done one thing extremely well: crush the offensive glass. The Wildcats rank 11th nationally and lead the Big 12 through two games in offensive rebounding rate, which has driven their early-conference success.

Though Texas Tech plays a no-middle scheme under McCasland, it's been susceptible on the glass this season. In two games against Big 12 competition, Tech ranks 11th in the league in defensive rebounding rate. The Longhorns crushed the Red Raiders on the boards, and that’s what the Cats will try to repeat tonight.

Head coach Jerome Tang’s offense isn’t as up-tempo as last season, as the personnel frankly is better served grinding out low-possession ball games.

The Cats are led offensively by two elite scoring guards in Tylor Perry (McCasland’s former player at North Texas) and Cam Carter. Tang will send his star guards off ball screens, where they can pull from deep or attract help for kick-out and dump-off opportunities.

Shooting is lacking on this roster, and even Perry — a career 40%+ 3-point marksman — has struggled knocking down triples this season. Creighton transfer Arthur Kaluma has been K-State’s most consistent weapon from outside the arc, but he’s also better served as a muscular rim attacker.

An inability to shoot against TTU’s packed in defense is a recipe for failure, so K-State will hope Perry’s recent two-game stretch of 41% outside shooting is a sign of positive things to come.

Ultimately, if Perry is cold, scoring is going to come at a premium. Relying on the offensive glass and trips to the foul line is a lot to ask against an excellent game planner in McCasland.

Texas Tech has done no wrong offensively through two games in Big 12 play. The Red Raiders are hitting a ridiculous 50% of their outside shots, which has led to their No. 1 Big 12 offensive rating.

Sophomore guard Pop Isaacs has been a bona fide star, averaging 22.5 points on 16-of-32 shooting.

No team is winning consistently against a 50% 3-point clip, but K-State can take away other areas of the floor. The Wildcats have been elite defensively defending inside the arc, allowing the league’s lowest 2-point field goal percentage through two games.

While TTU can shoot the 3, it doesn’t want to solely rely on it for offense. The Red Raiders are generally a balanced attack in terms of shot diet and rely on dribble penetration off ball screens, post-ups and duck-ins to manufacture points.

Big man Warren Washington is a weapon on both ends of the floor. At 7-foot, with excellent passing ability, he presents a matchup challenge for K-State’s frontcourt.

Washington is mega efficient around the rim and loves to pull his defender to the high post, where he can hit cutters sprinting backdoor to the hoop.

Defensively, he’s a one-man wrecking crew and one of the best shot-blockers in the land. While K-State’s Will McNair Jr. and David N’Guessan are solid bigs, they fall short of Washington’s level.

Tech’s home floor is no joke. Since 2020, the Red Raiders have covered 54% of their games at home and have won 83% of them straight-up. In their current white-hot state, it'll be challenging for the Wildcats to keep pace.

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While Tech has an incredible home floor and all the momentum in the world, it’s hard to fathom laying seven points against a very good and well-coached Kansas State squad.

The Wildcats are 2-0 both against the number and straight up in true road games this year, and they won’t be intimidated by any possible tortillas flying through the air.

This game should play in the low-to-mid 60s on a possession basis, a relatively slower tempo.

Tech is bound to cool off at some point from the Land of Plenty, and if it does, it’ll be difficult for it to cover a seven-point spread.

Pick: Kansas State +7.5 (Play to +6)