Minnesota vs Michigan Odds, Pick for Thursday
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Minnesota vs Michigan Odds, Pick
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
The Michigan Wolverines are struggling. They're ranked 59th overall, per KenPom, but have lost consecutive games to Florida and McNeese State. The Wolverines don't necessarily have any bad losses, except for maybe Long Beach State on their home court, but they are 6-7 with a 1-1 record in Big Ten play.
Their opponent at home on Thursday is the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers are 10-3 with a 1-1 conference record, though their only top-225 KenPom win came against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Michigan should cover, but let's get to the Minnesota vs. Michigan odds.
Minnesota has the better defense, ranking 98th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Meanwhile, Michigan ranks 140th. However, the Gophers don't turn opponents over often, ranking 169th. The Wolverines rank 209th offensively. This has been an issue for Michigan all season, and although the Wolverines may still lose the turnover battle, it shouldn't be as drastic.
Minnesota also only allows a 29.5% 3-point attempt rate, which ranks 17th in the country. Opponents are shooting 33% against the Gophers, while Michigan shoots 38.3% from 3 and has a 40.8% 3-point attempt rate.
Minnesota does seem to have a rebounding edge. The Gophers rank 50th in offensive rebounding and 101st in defensive rebounding. Michigan ranks 62nd offensively and 236th defensively. Look for both squads to crash the glass and manufacture seconds-chance buckets.
Michigan has a putrid defense, but ranks 22nd in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Gophers rank 77th, but Michigan’s strength of schedule ranks 22nd, while Minnesota ranks 358th (one of the worst in the country).
Minnesota shoots 36.4% from deep and 58.3% from inside the perimeter. Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 35.6% from outside the arc and 49.3% from inside. Braeden Carrington could return for the Gophers, but he isn't much of a 3-point threat. Jaelin Llewellyn is questionable (concussion protocol), which could boost the Wolverines' defensive depth. One saving grace for Michigan is not allowing too many field goal attempts. The Wolverines rank 20th in field goal attempt rate and 36th in 3-point attempt rate. The Wolverines also rank 57th in Rim and 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. This says they actually may have a more well-rounded approach than the results have indicated.
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Minnesota vs. Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
Michigan has the home-court advantage and a better offense against better competition. The Golden Gophers have a slight defensive edge, but that shouldn't be as large of a looming factor as Michigan’s offensive approach. Both teams limit 3s and free-throw attempts. Michigan has several players shooting over 38% from 3, which will be a massive test for Minnesota. Ohio State shot over 50% on the Gophers, so beating them from deep is doable.
Take Michigan to -8 (-110).
Pick: Michigan -6 (Play to -8)
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