Nevada vs San Jose State Odds, Pick for Friday

Friday night's Mountain West showdown between the Nevada Wolf Pack and San Jose State Spartans is a clash of contrasting teams with an array of statistics to consider.

Nevada (21-6; 8-5 MW), with its solid season-long metrics, squares off against a San Jose State team (9-18; 1-12 MW) that's faced some serious challenges.

Nevada's offensive unit has been notably efficient this season, ranking 66th in adjusted efficiency. The Wolf Pack’s 101st rank in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and impressive 37th rank in turnover percentage highlight a team skilled at creating and capitalizing on scoring opportunities without squandering possessions.

However, their lower rank in offensive rebounding (233rd) suggests potential issues in securing second-chance points, an area that could be exploited.

Despite this, Nevada's exceptional seventh-place rank in free-throw rate — juxtaposed with its middling free-throw percentage (200th) — indicates it's adept at drawing fouls, though converting these opportunities into points remains an area for improvement.

Defensively, Nevada shines, boasting a 35th rank in adjusted efficiency and a commendable 56th in eFG% allowed. This defensive prowess — coupled with relatively solid rankings in turnovers forced (123rd) and defensive rebounding (121st) — paints a picture of a team that can effectively disrupt opponents' offensive flows.

However, the Wolf Pack's free-throw rate allowed (203rd) could offer San Jose State avenues to score, especially if the game sees a high number of fouls.

San Jose State, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency. Offensively, it's ranks 167th in adjusted efficiency, with its eFG% (113th) and turnover percentage (81st) reflecting a team that, while not highly inefficient, lacks the cutting edge to consistently break down defenses.

The Spartans' abysmal ranks in offensive rebounding (337th) and free-throw rate (357th) — combined with a low free-throw percentage (295th) — underscore significant weaknesses in maintaining possession and capitalizing on scoring opportunities.

This is particularly important as Nevada has a tendency to send opponents to the line. However, SJSU won't be able to capitalize on that weakness.

Defensively, the Spartans face even steeper challenges, as evidenced by their 305th rank in adjusted efficiency and 341st rank in eFG% allowed. These figures indicate a defense that frequently allows high-quality shots, compounded by poor performance in forcing turnovers (270th) and securing defensive rebounds (196th).

Such vulnerabilities could be particularly problematic against a Nevada team that excels in drawing fouls and maintaining offensive efficiency.

Given the analysis, Nevada covering -9.5 points appears to be the most logical betting strategy for this matchup.

Despite the game taking place at San Jose State, Nevada's superior offensive efficiency and robust defense positions it well to control the game and exploit the Spartans' defensive frailties.

Nevada's ability to draw fouls and maintain possession — coupled with San Jose State's struggles in both offensive production and defensive containment — underscores a significant mismatch in favor of the visiting team.

The Wolf Pack already dominated the Spartans less than three weeks ago, albeit in Nevada. Expect Nevada to come out ready to sweep the season series against San Jose State and for the Wolf Pack to cover the 9.5-point spread in this game.

Pick: Nevada -9.5