New Mexico vs Santa Clara Odds, Pick for Saturday

Editor's Note: Jamal Mashburn Jr. (lower body) is out today, according to CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein.

One year after New Mexico was one of the last unbeatens in the entire country and didn't lose in the non-conference, the Lobos have started the new season stockpiling wins. They're 8-1 with four non-conference games remaining, and Richard Pitino's squad will be at least seven-point favorites in all four of those contests.

The Lobos started last year hot and then collapsed in Mountain West play. There were warning signs under the hood, namely the extremely flawed defensive metrics.

This year, the Lobos' defensive efficiency has improved considerably overall.

Will it be enough to cover a double-digit spread on a neutral court against a solid mid-major in Santa Clara?

The story of the Lobos' season has been overcoming the injuries to Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Those two guards have carried the Lobos' offense for the last two seasons and have missed significant time this year.

House didn't play for five games and has been quite inconsistent since returning — one great game, one dud and one middling performance. Mashburn hasn't played since Nov. 22 against Rice.

They've spent just 15 minutes on court together for the entire season.

The question is how much the Lobos actually miss Mashburn. He adds a ton of volume scoring and shooting, but offense hasn't really been the issue for the Lobos under Pitino. He's an undersized minus defender and you could argue that the Lobos would be better balanced without him in the lineup.

Mashburn is listed as questionable for this matchup, and I'd absolutely bet against any line movement that pushed the line higher if he were announced as in for tomorrow.

The primary difference between this New Mexico team and years past is the defensive rim protection. The Lobos were outside the top 200 in rim defense last year and added a 6-foot-10 freshman and a 6-foot-10 transfer portal center from Iona to bolster things.

JT Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph both grade out solidly well on defense, and it's made it much tougher to get to the rim and score against the Lobos' defense.

Santa Clara's perimeter defense and lacking ball pressure makes the Broncos a very average defense overall, but they do match up pretty well with this Lobos offense.

For starters, the Broncos force teams to play in the half court. They have one of the longest average possession lengths defensively in the entire country, and they guard the mid-range at a well above-average clip.

Given that New Mexico shoots almost no 3s — even fewer when Mashburn is out of the lineup — it's hard to see New Mexico exploiting the Broncos' biggest weakness defensively.

Per ShotQuality, the Broncos are 70th in mid-range defense. They're not going to give up easy looks at the rim either, where Herb Sendek's team is a top-50 defense nationally.

They've played a decent schedule to this point that includes Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the only offense that totally overmatched them athletically, and the Buckeyes are much more perimeter-oriented offensively than this New Mexico squad.

You can expect the Broncos to throw a lot of size at the New Mexico frontcourt, and they're unlikely to be overmatched if the Lobos do try to speed the game and play through their bigs in the frontcourt.

It's easy to see why the market really likes this New Mexico team (improved defensive metrics). Santa Clara just lost comfortably as a 2.5-point favorite on the road at Cal, which was without one of its best players.

Now on a neutral court in Nevada, these two teams appear to be headed in the wrong direction.

That presents an opportunity to buy Santa Clara low and sell New Mexico high. Whether Mashburn plays or not, the Broncos should get enough scores to stay in this. They won't be totally exposed matchup wise by the excellent Lobos offense and pace.

Pick: Santa Clara +9 or Better

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