Fresno State vs Nevada Pick & Prediction for Friday

It was a wild game in Fort Collins, Colorado, on Tuesday evening, as Nevada pulled out a stunning victory over Colorado. Guard Jarod Lucas, who is having an incredible season, put his name on the college basketball map with a half-court heave as time expired.

It was an emotional win for the Wolf Pack, who now have to quickly gather themselves for an expected sleepy spot against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are among the worst teams in the conference, so many casual bettors will lay the points with the Wolf Pack.

It has been a lost season for Justin Hutson's squad, and it doesn't help that the Bulldogs play in one of the most competitive conferences in the country. Fresno State ranks outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

The lone positive of the Bulldogs' offense is that they are shooting 53% as a team and 54% inside of the arc. They have to establish success inside, otherwise they will get blown out out of the gym. On the flip side, Fresno State turns the ball over too often, lacks consistent rebounding and does not shoot the 3-pointer well.

The Bulldogs lost their last matchup to the Wolf Pack by 15 at home, so they'll have to make a strong effort to keep the game close on the road. Luckily for them, the situational spot should give them a slight boost. Defensively, however, I have doubts they can hold up throughout the entire game in normal circumstances.

That being said, Fresno State is due for some fortune out on the perimeter, as it is one of the worst teams in the nation in opponent 3PT%. The Bulldogs are in the top 140 in 3-point attempts allowed per game, which suggests they are due for a bit of luck on their side.

They don't force turnovers and struggle to create any sort of presence on the perimeter or interior. It is questionable if they'll be able to make stops.

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The Wolf Pack seem well-positioned to dominate the Bulldogs once again. After a thrilling victory in Fort Collins, Nevada enters this one boasting a top-50 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

They hold several advantages on the offensive side of the ball, including a juicy matchup against the Bulldogs' weak defense. The Wolf Pack are skilled at protecting the basketball and are an excellent 3-point shooting team, though they may experience some regression in that area.

Defensively, Nevada should have little trouble defending against Fresno State's mediocre 3-point shooting. The Wolf Pack are a strong interior defensive team and should be able to hold their own against the Bulldogs' interior-focused offense.

While metrics suggest the Wolf Pack will dominate at home, there is a chance they may be feeling a bit sluggish after their exciting win Tuesday.

Despite Fresno State having several disadvantages in the matchup, I am willing to bet on the Bulldogs on the road. I'm a believer in negative regression, which I think is looming for the Wolf Pack.

Although Nevada didn't necessarily need to win on a buzzer beater against Colorado State, I still think they will be flat after that win. The market has gone too far in my opinion. The Bulldogs are a terrible basketball team, but I will hold my nose and back them on the road. Let's hope their offense shows up for once.

Pick: Fresno State +14.5 (Play to +13.5)