Memphis vs FAU Pick & Prediction for Saturday

Memphis takes on FAU on Saturday, March 9, at 12 p.m. ET on CBS. Here's a Memphis vs FAU pick and prediction for Saturday.

The American Athletic Conference stumbled into a beautifully juicy matchup for the final Saturday of the regular season.

Two of its best teams find themselves in need of a win.

The Florida Atlantic Owls sit on the safe side of the bubble, though could sense some danger if things go wrong before tournament time. The Memphis Tigers, meanwhile, are nearly in desperation mode and would cherish a road win over a top-50 opponent like FAU.

Something's got to give in this NCAA tournament rematch from last season. That game will be remembered as a classic, though this edition may be just as fun.

The Tigers can just barely see the back of the NCAA Tournament bubble as we complete regular-season action. None of the 90 bracketologists currently aggregated by Bracket Matrix see Memphis in the field, though most agree the Tigers aren't dead.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Memphis as the fifth team out of the field. FOX Sports' Mike DeCourcy places it as the seventh team out. Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology, a more analytics-based approach, has 13 teams ahead of the Tigers on the cut line, giving Memphis a 3.5% chance of an at-large bid.

If you squint at the Tigers' resume, it has tournament qualities to it. Memphis has played a top-100 schedule, including the 64t- toughest nonconference slate, per KenPom.

The Tigers' nonconference schedule featured nine dates with power conference foes, and Memphis won seven of those nine games. A NET ranking of just 71 jumps off the page, but that feels like a byproduct of a terrible two-week stretch. The Tigers lost four straight in late January, all of which were alarming.

Memphis led eventual AAC conference champ South Florida by 20 points in the second half before squandering the lead and losing at home. The Tigers then lost at Tulane and UAB before hitting rock bottom with a home loss to Rice.

When this team looks right, the Tigers look like a group that can win in March. When things go wrong, it gets ugly.

Memphis plays fast but loose. It forces turnovers but turns the ball over. It hits the offensive glass but gets hammered on the defensive boards.

The Tigers allow a ton of 3-point attempts — the highest rate in the AAC — so even though they've faced just the third-worst 3-point shooting percentage in the conference, no team allows more points from beyond the arc.

But when this team clicks, it gets dangerous. A 63-point second half against Wichita State proves that. So does the win in the first meeting with FAU. Yet, it's impossible to know when Memphis will no-show.

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If the Owls didn't go to the Final Four last year and enter this season with sky-high expectations, it's hard to project how the college basketball world — and the NCAA Tournament selection committee — would view this team.

This is a team that finished three games out of first place in the AAC, a league with only one top-50 KenPom team, which is these Owls.

FAU has two losses against Quad 4 — yes, Quad 4 — competition this season. Its resume balances that issue with a top-end win over Arizona, but that remains just one of two wins over teams most would deem worthy of an at-large bid this month, both of which came before Christmas.

On paper and on the court, this team is once again capable of a run this month. Johnell Davis is a real star, Vlad Goldin is a difference-maker in the paint and much of the rest of the roster proved itself last March.

While those things are true today and were true during the win over Arizona, they also should have been true during losses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast and UAB.

This is a team with real defensive question marks. Dusty May preaches hard closeouts of shooters, as his team allows the lowest 3-point rate in the conference.

Yet, once those closeouts are attached, FAU isn't providing enough resistance inside the arc. FAU's opponents lead the American in 2-point shooting percentage and percentage of points scored inside the arc.

The first time these teams met, Memphis defended its home court and stole a four-point win.

The notable numbers from that game came in the shooting column, with the teams combining to make just 12-of-55 shots from long range (22%). That won't happen again, with these high-powered offenses always ready to post a big number.

The total is high, but these are the two highest-scoring teams in the AAC. FAU is going to get up a ton of 3s, while Memphis will push the pace for all 40 minutes.

The Owls have topped 80 points 19 times this season, and there's no reason to think they won't again when playing at the Tigers' pace.

Pick: Over 160.5

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