College Basketball Odds: Northwestern vs Indiana Pick (Sunday, Feb. 18)

It’s the first Sunday of the college hoops season with no NFL football getting in the way, and the Northwestern Wildcats face the Indiana Hoosiers in the historic Assembly Hall.

Let's break down both teams and offer a Northwestern vs. Indiana prediction and pick.

Northwestern suffered a gut-wrenching road loss against Rutgers on Thursday after leading by 13 in the first half. It played without Ty Berry — who suffered a season-ending injury last week — for the first time, and Ryan Langborg got ejected in the first 10 minutes of the game. Thankfully, Langborg will return for this matchup and should provide an extra shooting jolt.

Even without Berry, Northwestern still boasts offensive dominance thanks to Boo Buie.

Buie is averaging 19 points per game on 43% shooting and 41% from 3. He’s easily one of the sport’s best guards, but he has more on his plate with Berry done for the year. Teams will certainly force the ball out of his hands, which puts an emphasis on shot-making from Brooks Barnhizer and Langborg.

Since the offense loses a little potency, it needs to ratchet up the defense. A season ago, Northwestern rode an elite defense to an NCAA Tournament win over Boise State. In 2023-24, Northwestern ranks top 30 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 80 in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats' defense is playing better of late, limiting three straight opponents to less than one point per possession.

A few weeks ago, I would've had some concerns about Northwestern's size mismatch against Indiana, but Nick Martinelli now starting changes the game.

Entering the season, Indiana had to answer questions about guard play and shooting. We're deep into the season and it's still the Hoosiers' overwhelming problem.

Now, Xavier Johnson is injured, which forces Gabe Cupps and Trey Galloway into significant playing time. Both guards are shooting below 25% from 3 this season. Plus, Indiana knows it’s not a shooting team, attempting 3s on just 27% of field goals (349th nationally).

However, Indiana's identity relies on scoring in the paint with its pair of dominant bigs: Malik Reneau and Kel'el Ware. Playing two 7-footers together may seem archaic, but it's worked to a certain extent for the Hoosiers. Reneau averages over 16 points per game while Ware posts over 14 points per contest and will hit the occasional 3-point shot. The main strength from playing two strong bigs is generating free throws, with Indiana ranking in the top 10 in free-throw rate nationally. But Indiana shoots just 66% from the foul line.

The Hoosiers need to limit turnovers against the aggressive Northwestern defense. The Wildcats force turnovers on 19% of possessions, while Indiana has shown some careless ball-handling tendencies in the past. In a slow-paced, low-scoring game, Indiana can ill afford to give Buie extra possessions.

I rarely bet on road teams in the Big Ten since home teams typically reign supreme. This spot feels a little different, as Northwestern is playing for something much larger than Indiana: the right to play in college basketball's biggest event. Northwestern is not only the better team, but plays like a team that cares more about winning basketball games.

Pick: Northwestern ML

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