Saint Joe’s vs VCU Odds, Pick: How to Back the Rams

The upcoming Atlantic 10 conference game between the Saint Joseph's Hawks and the VCU Rams features two teams battling to stay in the upper echelon of the conference.

Set against the backdrop of VCU's 11-5 home-court advantage versus Saint Joseph’s 3-7 road record, this matchup is a fascinating study of contrasting styles and statistical strengths.

The Hawks enter this contest with an offense that has shown flashes of efficiency throughout the season. Ranked 104th in adjusted efficiency and an impressive 50th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), St. Joe’s has demonstrated an ability to convert scoring opportunities at a relatively high rate.

Their ranking of 117th in turnover percentage and 152nd in offensive rebounding percentage suggests moderate success in maintaining possession and capitalizing on second-chance points.

Defensively, Saint Joe's has been middle-of-the-pack, ranking 142nd in adjusted efficiency and 117th in eFG% allowed. Its ability to force turnovers (111th) and somewhat limited effectiveness in defensive rebounding (206th) paint a picture of a team that can occasionally disrupt opponents but often fails to dominate the boards.

VCU, on the other hand, boasts a defense that's among the best in the nation.

Ranking 41st adjusted efficiency and an outstanding seventh in eFG% allowed, the Rams have consistently stifled opponents' scoring through intense defensive pressure. Despite a lower ranking in forcing turnovers (249th), their high rank in defensive rebounding (90th) demonstrates an ability to close out possessions and limit opponents' second-chance scoring opportunities.

However, VCU's offense has faced challenges, ranking 140th in adjusted efficiency and 125th in eFG%. Notably, it has significant issue with turnovers, ranking 266th in the country.

The benefit of playing at home should boost these offensive numbers for the Rams, as they perform better with some home cooking.

Considering the dynamics at play, VCU covering -5 points is the most appealing bet.

The Rams’ defensive prowess positions them well to control the game's pace and flow against Saint Joe's. While the Hawks have demonstrated offensive efficiency, VCU's defensive intensity, especially at home where it boasts a strong home-court advantage, is likely to pose significant challenges.

Furthermore, VCU's ability to convert at the free-throw line could prove decisive in a game that may see plenty of trips to the stripe, especially in late-game situations where the Rams are trying to preserve or extend their lead.

Given the significant VCU home versus Saint Joe’s away advantage and defensive metrics that align well against Saint Joe's offensive profile, betting on the Rams to cover the 5-point spread is the bet I will be taking in this game.

Pick: VCU -5