TCU vs West Virginia Odds, Pick: Why to Back the Frogs

Wednesday night’s college basketball landscape is set ablaze with an intriguing Big 12 matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and the West Virginia Mountaineers. As both teams prepare to clash at the WVU Coliseum, focusing on advanced metrics allow us to hone in on actionable insight.

With two teams in vastly different positions this season, we will find out if the Horned Frogs can bounce back from their two-game losing streak on the road or if the Mountaineers will snap their three-game losing streak and defend their home court.

TCU has exhibited a balanced attack on both ends of the floor this season. Offensively, their 38th-ranked adjusted efficiency underscores its potent scoring ability — that's complemented by a ranking of 84th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%).

Despite struggles with turnovers (222nd), the Horned Frogs' ability to secure offensive rebounds (24th) allows them to remain competitive in possessions. Their free-throw metrics, though middling (141st in free-throw rate and 142nd in free-throw percentage), suggest there's room for improvement.

Defensively, TCU shines, boasting a 32nd-ranked adjusted efficiency that highlights its capability to stifle opponents. While the Horned Frogs' eFG% allowed ranks outside the top 100, their prowess in forcing turnovers (28th) disrupts opposing offenses effectively.

Their defensive rebounding and free-throw rate defense, however, reveal areas where the Horned Frogs could be vulnerable, particularly against a West Virginia team that excels in drawing fouls (73rd).

Maximize your TCU-WVU action with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code!

The Mountaineers have faced many challenges this season, which is reflected in their offensive and defensive metrics.

Offensively, their adjusted efficiency ranks 158th, coupled with a poor 257th ranking in eFG%, indicating struggles in finding consistent, high-quality shots. The Mountaineers' horrendous turnover and offensive rebounding metrics further paint a picture of a team battling to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities, although their free-throw rate suggests they're adept at drawing fouls.

On the defensive end, the Mountaineers’ stats reveal a unit that struggles significantly more than even their offense. A 133rd-ranked adjusted efficiency paired with a 205th ranking in eFG% allowed highlights their difficulties in contesting shots and protecting the rim.

Moreover, their inability to force turnovers (302nd) and secure defensive rebounds (224th) places additional pressure on their offense to outscore opponents — a tall order given their shooting woes.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Considering matchup dynamics and both teams' season-long performances, the best bet appears to be TCU covering the spread (-4.5). Despite the game taking place in West Virginia, TCU's superior offensive efficiency and defensive prowess in creating turnovers present a significant challenge for the Mountaineers.

TCU's ability to dominate the glass on offense could also mitigate its turnover issues, providing them multiple scoring opportunities against a West Virginia team that struggles significantly in shot defense and rebounding.

Coupled with the narrative of TCU's push for a strong season finish and West Virginia's inconsistencies, bettors would find value in backing the Horned Frogs to secure a decisive victory, leveraging their strengths in a critical conference showdown.

Pick: TCU -4.5