San Diego State vs San Jose State Odds, Pick

No. 19 San Diego State and San Jose State meet at the Provident Credit Union Event Center to close out Mountain West Conference hoops action Tuesday night.

The Aztecs have gotten off to a great start in conference play with wins over Fresno State and UNLV to sit at 13-2 overall on the year. Meanwhile, the Spartans have dropped back-to-back conference games to Wyoming and Boise State to own a 7-8 record.

This is a huge mismatch to end the night of hoops, and I’m not sure the underdog can score enough against one of the best teams in the country.

With three of five starters leaving from last season’s NCAA Tournament runner-up squad, veteran coach Brian Dutcher had big holes to fill. And he's had to do it against one of the tougher schedules in college basketball so far.

According to KenPom, the Aztecs have faced a schedule of opponents that ranks inside the top 25, which includes four Quad 1 games. Two of their biggest wins so far came against the top programs in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary’s and No. 23 Gonzaga.

The player who has thrived in his new starting role this season has been Jaedon LeDee. The senior forward leads the Mountain West in scoring (21.4 PPG) and is second in rebounding (8.7 RPG).

LeDee has scored at least 20 points in nine of 14 games to go along with seven double-doubles on the year. Reese Waters (12.7 PPG) and Micah Parrish (10.5 PPG) join him as the other two Aztecs to average double figures on the season.

Maximize your college basketball action with our FanDuel promo code.

Coach Tim Miles has to be wondering what he has to do to get his squad to play better in the second half of games. In the conference opener at Wyoming, the Spartans racked up 47 points and held a 12-point lead in the eventual loss.

San Jose State followed that up by scoring 40 points in the opening half to lead against Boise State before again dropping a loss.

The issues aren’t on the offensive end of the floor, where the Spartans leads the Mountain West in 3-pointers made per game (8.9). There are also four Spartans who average in double figures on the season.

Of those top scorers, Alvaro Cardenas is the player that makes the offense tick. The Spanish guard ranks 27th in the country with 5.7 assists per game to go along with 13.6 points per game.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

As much as I’d love to back a home underdog, this is just too big of a mismatch. So, my best bet is to take San Diego State at -10.5.

San Jose State has only played one team that ranks in the top 60 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, according to BartTorvik, like the Aztecs do.

The Spartans did not cover this same spread against Texas Tech in a 14-point loss in which they only scored 42 points. The home team does have solid metrics offensively, but it has come against opponent defenses that rank 287th, according to KenPom.

I just don’t see many avenues to success for San Jose State here, and with San Diego State covering this spread in its first two Mountain West matchups, I think the Aztecs make it three straight Tuesday night.

Pick: San Diego State -10.5 (Play to -12)