College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: St. John’s vs Boston College (Sunday, Dec. 10)

Below, we have college basketball odds and a pick for St. John's vs Boston College on Sunday, Dec. 10.

Sure, St. John’s is in Queens. Rest assured, though, that when Rick Pitino took over as head coach, he had dominance over all five NYC boroughs on his mind.

Thus, it's no surprise to see the Red Storm venturing down to Brooklyn for a featured weekend battle at the Barclay’s Center. Though this is just one quarter of a quadruple-header, expect the crowd to be quite friendly to Pitino and his squad.

While the Johnnies might not be taking the world by “storm” quite yet, they have enough talent to mount a run at an NCAA tournament bid for just the fourth time since 2003. Having Pitino on the sideline has fueled that optimism.

They’ll take on Boston College, which is looking for a resurgent year of its own. Off to a 6-3 start, the Eagles swiping a win in the Big Apple would see them off to their best start since 2018-19.

Both St. John’s and Boston College hope to use this as a launching pad en route to a big season.

The resurgent Eagles are built around the monolith that is Quinten Post. A towering center at 7-foot, 235 pounds, Post has a modern game that allows him to score inside or out. He has exquisite shooting touch, he's a savvy passer and he's active on the glass on both ends of the floor.

Pitino’s first order of business will be instilling a plan to limit BC’s big man.

The supporting cast around Post can be hit or miss. Jaeden Zackery brings the most experience, a smart veteran point guard who's mired in a shooting slump to start the season. Mason Madsen, Claudell Harris Jr. and Donald Hand fill in the blanks from the perimeter, though Harris has been hampered by an ankle injury of late.

The true X-factor for BC is Prince Aligbe, a formidable athlete who excels as a slasher. He should be able to take advantage of foes sending doubles to Post, cutting from off the ball and finishing inside.

Defensively, BC is a resolute man-to-man team. Per Synergy, the Eagles have played just one zone possession all year. They surrendered a triple to The Citadel, and Earl Grant quickly scrapped that experiment.

BC’s lack of perimeter length has consistently hurt on defense. In two-plus years under Grant, foes have made 36.4%, 36.8% and now 37.8% from beyond the arc; all three numbers are in the bottom 50 nationally. The Eagles can be hurt from beyond the arc.

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Uncharacteristically for a Pitino team, the Red Storm’s fatal flaw this year has been a leaky defense that can be beat multiple ways. Opponents have roasted the St. John’s defense from deep, even as Pitino tries to stress taking away that arc to his team.

Opponents are shooting 37.7% from beyond the arc, which is 325th in the country. In Pitno’s last 10 years as a head coach – three at Iona, seven at Louisville – his defenses never ranked worse than 67th in that category.

Pitino lamented the Red Storm’s defensive effort during the Charleston Classic, and the numbers seem to agree. They just aren't making opponents uncomfortable.

St. John’s is also very thin in the paint, with only Joel Soriano really asserting his will there this season. The Johnnies have little depth around him, and the wing/forward spots are occupied by stretchier players who prefer the perimeter – even the well-built Chris Ledlum.

Fortunately, the offense has covered up many of the defensive foibles. Ledlum, Glenn Taylor Jr. and Jordan Dingle have led a barrage from beyond the arc, and Soriano, Ledlum and Zuby Ejiofor have helped St. John’s rank No. 1 in the country in offensive rebound rate.

Generally speaking, it's a balanced offensive attack, but point guard Daniss Jenkins makes everything go. He excels at setting up his teammates, and his 6-foot-4 height helps him see over the top of defenses.

Unsurprisingly, the Red Storm are playing better than they did to start the year. Filtering Bart Torvik for games after Nov. 19 (the day they left Charleston), the Johnnies rank 15th in the country. Unsurprisingly, they're 3-0 against the spread in that span.

The two foes actually have a shared opponent in recent weeks: St. John’s beat Holy Cross by 46 on Nov. 25, while Boston College topped the Crusaders by 31 on Friday.

Of course, if betting was as easy as the transitive property, everyone would be rich.

Matchup-wise, Soriano vs. Post should be an outstanding duel. Post’s comfort on the perimeter could bother Soriano, but the Red Storm big man will aim to get BC’s star in foul trouble inside.

Can BC negate the Johnnies’ offensive rebounding? And will the Eagles – who aren't a prolific 3-point shooting squad, outside of Post and the banged up Harris – be able to punish Pitino’s defense from deep, like so many other foes have?

Ultimately, this is a better spot for St. John's. BC has a quick turnaround, while the Johnnies have had time to prepare — and are trending upwards. This isn't a home run bet, but I like the Johnnies on Sunday.

Pick: St. John's -5.5 (Play to -6)

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