NCAAB Odds, Pick for Texas Tech vs Butler

Below, we have NCAAB odds and a pick for Texas Tech vs Butler.

Butler and Texas Tech come together for perhaps the tightest matchup of the Big East-Big 12 Battle.

Butler has two losses (both to top-20 KenPom teams) this season, but it owns top-100 wins over Boise State and Penn State.

Texas Tech only has one loss to Villanova, with top-100 victories over Michigan and Northern Iowa. In addition, the Red Raiders have a win over San Jose State, which is one of the most underrated mid-major squads in the country.

Texas Tech has been its own villain this season, thanks to poor shot selection and weak ball control. However, outside of Posh Alexander, Butler doesn't have other defenders who force turnovers.

The Red Raiders rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 99th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They usually slow the pace down to their liking, which plays into their hands, especially in a tight game.

Texas Tech has struggled to knock down 3s this season. The Red Raiders are shooting an abysmal 27.4% from beyond the arc, while attempting 3s at a 43.5% rate. However, Devan Cambridge, Darrion Williams and Pop Isaacs all shot at least 33% from the outside last season.

The Red Raiders' main issue is that they rank 188th in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, so they're just shooting the wrong 3s.

Adding on, they rank 57th in points per possession at the rim, so they should be driving the ball more.

Butler ranks 36th in free throw attempt percentage on defense, but it ranks 184th in this metric offensively. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders rank 85th offensively and 27th defensively, so expect Texas Tech to have a slight edge when it comes to getting to the line.

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Butler’s main detriment this season has been crashing the glass. The Bulldogs rank 275th in offensive rebounding rate and 201st defensively.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech can at least pull down boards. The Red Raiders rank 92nd offensively and 89th defensively in rebounding, per KenPom, so this is a massive edge.

Warren Washington is a name to watch for Texas Tech, as the 7-footer is averaging eight boards per game. Williams and Cambridge are averaging at least five, as well.

Butler may have a solid defense, but one area it could exploit in this one is forcing turnovers. Unfortunately for them, the Bulldogs only rank 164th in defensive turnover rate, while the Red Raiders rank 248th offensively in this metric.

Outside of Alexander, not many Bulldogs will create the havoc needed to spur a massive advantage.

Lastly, Butler may have a solid defense at the moment, but it's giving up good shots to opponents. Per Shot Quality, the Bulldogs rank 115th in Open 3 Rate, 201st in Rim & 3 Rate and 211th in defending the rim.

Again, the size edge for the Red Raiders comes into play here. This could also create issues for Butler when it comes to fouling the Red Raiders.

Both of these teams are neck-and-neck, and home court may not be as big of a factor for Butler.

Texas Tech can get to the line and crash the glass. The Red Raiders also have had some sour results from deep, which could turn around any game now. They have a better defense, and that could muddy up the game for the Bulldogs, especially in the paint.

Take the Red Raiders in this game.

Pick: Texas Tech +1 (Play -1.5)

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