Virginia vs Clemson Odds, Pick: Coaching Mismatch an Impact?

Once considered the class of college basketball, the Atlantic Coast Conference has entered an interesting new era.

North Carolina and Duke are, as usual, atop the league. The gulf behind those giants, however, is as large as ever. The only other ACC team currently projected to play in the NCAA Tournament is the Clemson Tigers, though they have lost five of eight games and sit in 10th place in the conference standings.

The Virginia Cavaliers, riding a five-game heater, are looking to make run. Saturday offers a test as the Cavaliers travel to Clemson and look to keep the hot streak going.

Three weeks ago, I was fully ready to fade this team for the rest of the season. Virginia was 11-5 and coming off consecutive losses to NC State and Wake Forest.

Three weeks later, things have changed. Virginia has rattled off five straight wins and re-inserted itself into the bubble conversation.

You have to commend the effort, but I'm still skeptical.

The schedule over that stretch leaves plenty to be desired. Virginia's first two road wins of the season came at the worst and third-worst ACC teams by KenPom rating (Louisville and Georgia Tech). And the three home wins did not include an opponent currently projected as an ACC Tournament team.

Of course, winning those games is better than losing them, but I'd like to see Virginia answer the call both on the road and against a tournament quality opponent.

To win that sort of game, we'll need to see more from Virginia's offense. The Cavaliers are reliant on the spacing created by strong shooting, but don't have the ball-handling talent to take advantage of that spacing. For a team that shoots 3s at both a high percentage and a low volume, Virginia's success has been overly tied to outside shooting. In games in which Virginia shoots 35% or better from deep, the Cavaliers are 12-0. In games under that threshold, Virginia is just 4-5.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Clemson was one of the most pleasant surprises early in the season. The Tigers started 9-0 and finished non-conference play at 11-1, the lone loss a road game against Memphis. Clemson didn't just traipse through a cupcake schedule either. In fact, KenPom ranks the Tigers' non-conference slate 60th in the nation.

Yet for whatever reason, the ACC hasn't been as kind to Clemson. A 3-5 start in conference play created some adversity, which the Tigers will have plenty of chances to overcome. Thankfully, the schedule lightens up. According to ESPN's BPI, Clemson has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the ACC.

The Tigers are also wildly due for some shooting regression, on both ends of the floor. Prior to the January 1, in 12 games, Clemson shot 39.2% from long range, with their opponents shooting 31.4% from 3. In the Tigers' past eight games, all in conference, they've hit just 28.2% from beyond the arc, while their opponents have shot 37.9%. You'd expect both to normalize, especially for leading scorer PJ Hall, who shot nearly 40% from 3 last season. In those eight games, he's shot just 7-for-37 (18.9%) from beyond the arc.

It's scary to imagine what Hall's season will look like if he gets hot shooting. He's already posting 19.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. He topped 25 points against Louisville, Boston College and Georgia Tech, despite shooting 1-for-13 from 3 in those games.

(Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online in 2024, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks. Learn more.)

Clemson is the better team, playing at home and due for some shooting regression. That last factor is especially notable against Virginia's defense. Tony Bennett's scheme forces teams to stay outside the arc and rely on the 3.

This season, Virginia is allowing the second-highest percentage of scoring from long range and the third-highest 3-point rate in the ACC. Clemson will look to take full advantage.

If there's one thing to fear, its the coaching mismatch between Bennett and Brad Brownell, thought Bennett is just 11-7-1 ATS lifetime against Brownell. Clemson has only been favored four times in that sample, with the teams splitting those games.

Pick: Clemson -6.5 or Better