Cal State Bakersfield vs USC Odds, Pick for Thursday

USC's Kobe Johnson (undisclosed) is out tonight.

Coming off a third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, USC entered this season at No. 21 in the preseason AP Poll top 25. The Trojans looked the part of a top-25 team on Monday, knocking off Kansas State, 82-69, in their season opener in Las Vegas. It's a win that could have long-term benefits as well, as Kansas State reached the Elite Eight last season.

On Thursday, the Trojans will return home to host Cal State Bakersfield.

The Roadrunners also secured a win in their season opener, a 73-72 nail-biter over Southern Utah. It gives them a momentum boost after a rough 11-22 season.

However, the Roadrunners will be heavy underdogs at USC.

The Trojans have won both meetings in this series by a combined 19 points. This time, it's favored to win by over 20 points.

Monday night marked the return of CSU Bakersfield guard Kaleb Higgins to the starting lineup. He missed the final 19 games last season with a torn meniscus, but he showed no ill effects from the injury Monday night. He scored 27 points on 9-for-19 from the field and was the only Roadrunner in double digits.

Last season, Higgins was one of just two Roadrunners to average double digits in scoring. The second was center Antavion Collum, who has transferred to McNeese State.

Including Higgins, the Roadrunners return seven players from last year's team and two starters.

Senior guard Marvin McGhee was the only player to start all 33 games for the Roadrunners last season. He averaged 8.7 points per game and also knocked down 40% from deep as well.

3-point shooting was not a strong suit for the Roadrunners last season, as they shot just 32.4% as a team. It was symbolic of their offensive struggles as a whole.

Last season, CSU Bakersfield was 340th or worse nationally in points per game (60.5), offensive rating, Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, effective field goal percentage and 2-point field goal percentage.

The Roadrunners did hold opponents to just 64.7 points per game last year, which was aided by their slow pace. They were also 55th nationally in turnover percentage defensively.

The Roadrunners will need to force a ton of turnovers to pull out the upset in this one.

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Last season, Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson were the focal points of the Trojans' offense. Peterson has moved on, but Ellis is in for another big season, and he started on Monday with 24 points, eight rebounds and five assists against Kansas State.

To supplement Ellis, head coach Andy Enfield signed the No. 3 recruiting class in the country, led by the nation's No. 2 overall player, Isaiah Collier.

He looked the part of a five-star recruit on Monday, as he dropped 18 points and six assists on 7-for-9 shooting from the field in 26 minutes before fouling out.

Center Arrinten Page was a high school teammate of Collier, and he gives the Trojans more depth along their frontline behind center Joshua Morgan.

Morgan was one of the best rim protectors in the Pac-12 last season, and that continued in the season opener. He swatted five shots and scored 11 points against Kansas State.

Morgan and Page are both 6-foot-11 and their length will make it difficult for an undersized CSU Bakersfield team to score around the rim.

USC will have a size advantage across the board, as the shortest player to receive minutes for it on Monday was Ellis, who's still 6-foot-3 himself.

That includes guard Kobe Johnson. The 6-foot-5 junior could be in line for a breakout season playing alongside Ellis and Collier. He shot nearly 37% from behind the arc last season, and he scored 16 points against Kansas State on Monday.

Last season, CSU Bakersfield played just one high-major opponent, and that was Utah, a team it lost by 28 to. That Utah team lost both meetings to USC by double digits.

The transitive property doesn't apply in all situations, but Utah held the Roadrunners to 44 points in that game.

The Roadrunners will also struggle to score against USC. Higgins stands just 5-foot-10, and he'll have one of Ellis, Collier or Johnson guarding him on the perimeter while he'll be attempting to score over Morgan and Page on drives. Morgan could have five blocks in this one as well.

CSU Bakersfield will look to slow the game and control pace, but it won't help it cover in this matchup. USC will likely cover with 75-80 points here, and it has the firepower to do so in this matchup.

Pick: USC -24.5

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