Kentucky vs Penn Odds, Pick for Saturday

The Kentucky Wildcats are looking to bounce back from a home loss with a road trip to Philadelphia.

This game won't be on the Penn Quakers' campus, but will instead be played at the Wells Fargo Center. Philadelphia loves its college hoops teams, but not enough to outweigh Big Blue Nation as this will likely look like a Kentucky home game.

There isn't a coach in sports who operates quite like John Calipari. At times, it seems impossible to parse what he is doing with his team or why he is doing it. This season's Wildcats are the perfect example.

On either a per-possession or per-minute basis, Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard are Kentucky's most efficient scorers. They have combined to shoot 38-of-68 from beyond the arc (56%). Sheppard has shot up NBA draft boards, with some recent mocks placing him in the top half of the lottery. Dillingham started the season with seven straight double-figure scoring outings.

Despite that, Calipari has started each of those freshmen just once this season, with each seeing varying amounts of playing time.

With both Dillingham and Sheppard on the floor (237 possessions), Kentucky scores 131.4 points per 100 possessions and allows 88.8 points per 100 possessions (per Hoop Explorer). If extrapolated to the full season, those numbers would rate as the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense in the nation. In minutes with just one or neither of Sheppard and Dillingham (356 possessions), Kentucky scores 118.2 points and allows 105.9 points per 100 possessions.

In a home loss to UNC Wilmington, Calipari seemed ready to hand the keys to Sheppard, who played 39 minutes, scored 25 points and added eight rebounds and six assists. Dillingham, on the other hand, shot 1-of-9 with four turnovers and rode the bench for long stretches.

It's hard to gauge Kentucky's floor or ceiling because it's impossible to know which players give the Wildcats their best chance to win right now and which are best suited for March. It's also hard to tell if Calipari is manipulating the differences in those two things, or if he's just winging it with what feels right each game.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Penn is always going to measure its success not by what it does in the non-conference schedule, but by how it stacks up with its Ivy League foes. Entering this season, there was some expectation that the Quakers could fill the void behind Yale and Princeton as the third-best team in the conference. To date, it's been hard to gauge if that's still true.

Penn beat the best team on its schedule, shocking city rival Villanova. The Quakers also lost to a Maryland Eastern Shore team that hasn't beaten another DI opponent. Penn's season would also look radically different if it hadn't lost three games in overtime. The Quakers' 6-4 record could easily be 9-1.

The good news is that the Quakers appear to have replaced last year's conference player of the year, Jordan Dingle. Clark Slajchert is averaging 19.3 points per game in his senior season and is aided by freshman Tyler Perkins, who is adding 15.7 points per game and looks to a be a future bright spot for this program.

Penn's fate will be decided on the defensive end of the floor, where it ranks 303rd nationally. Allowing 10 3s, 93 points and 1.27 points per possession to a stagnant La Salle team in a heart-breaking overtime loss showcased Penn's issues on that end.

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.

This is a weird game on the schedule. It's normal for Kentucky to schedule a team of Penn's caliber, but you'd typically see this as a buy game played in Lexington. Calipari has had success recruiting the Philadelphia area as several players on the Wildcats view this game as a homecoming. Kentucky gets to fill an NBA arena with traveling fans, gets credit for a neutral-court game and can host recruits from hotbed areas in the Northeast.

Still, I'd like Kentucky's chances to cover a little better if this game were being played in Rupp Arena. Penn is good enough to throw a haymaker, just ask Villanova. With that being said, Kentucky has enough firepower to overcome the odd circumstances of the game.

The Wildcats are coming off a home loss, which puts a touch of desperation on their side, and have one of the most potent offenses in college basketball. A struggling Penn defense will be tested to its limits and Kentucky should run away in the second half.

Pick: Kentucky -13