NCAAB Pick & Prediction for Air Force vs Utah State

Utah State remains tied with Boise State for first place in the Mountain West, while Air Force is trying to avoid the basement. The Falcons only have two conference wins this season and could struggle against the dominant Aggies.

The deck is stacked against service academies in the transfer portal era, and the talent disparity is showing in conference play. The Falcons have won only two conference games: one stunner over UNLV and the shocker of the year in the Pit against New Mexico.

Coach Joe Scott deploys an old-school Princeton offense, featuring deliberate play, plenty of back-cutting and 3-point shooting. The Falcons attempt 3s on 47% of field goals. Air Force shoots it well, connecting on 36% of shots from downtown, and it ranks in the top 10 in the country in assist rate.

Forwards Rytis Petraitis and Beau Becker are the crux of Air Force’s offensive success, combining for around 30 points per game and over 14 rebounds per contest. While neither possesses overwhelming size or strength, both have a ton of skill, which works perfectly in Scott’s offense.

On defense, the Air Force is among the worst units in the country, ranking 314th in defensive efficiency. The Falcons' biggest defensive issue is defending the 3-point shot, as opponents shoot 37.3% on shots from deep. If Air Force struggles to defend bigger interior players, doubling the post is a bad option since it can’t defend the perimeter. It’s a tough time on defense, and it won’t get easier against the Aggies.

Utah State nearly fell short on the road against Fresno State two days ago, but Darius Brown II’s heroics saved the day. Brown went 2-of-2 from 3 in the win — one coming at the buzzer in regulation and the other putting the Aggies ahead in overtime. While Brown doesn’t get the shine of fellow Mountain West guards Kenan Blackshear and Isaiah Stevens, his value matches up well considering his impact on both ends of the floor.

Big-man Great Osobor carved up Air Force for 32 points in the first meeting between the two in early January, so he should be licking his chops for round two. Osobor could win the Mountain West Player of the Year, averaging 17.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and three assists per game. He impacts the offensive end of the floor in myriad ways, and if you send multiple bodies at him, his passing will make you pay.

Coach Danny Sprinkle’s squad does one thing better than any other team in America: defend the 3-point shot. The Aggies' opponent 3-point shooting percentage is 28%. With Air Force’s reliance on perimeter scoring, we could see an offensive struggle from the Falcons.

Only a few days ago, Boise State blew the doors off of Air Force. I think we’ll see a similar outcome in Logan, as the hefty home favorites could crush the Falcons' interior defense. It just feels like a nightmare matchup for Air Force.

Pick: Utah State -16.5