Louisville travels to Chapel Hill to take on UNC in an ACC Big Monday duel at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
While our staff has already touched on the spread, I'm targeting unique angles.
I've fired up my college basketball player prop projections, and I've found solid value on two Louisville players, including three total picks.
North Carolina vs Louisville Player Props
Sananda Fru Over 5.5 Rebounds (-145)
Ryan Conwell Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
Both of these rebound props are linked together by the fact that the market is underestimating the impact of the loss of Tar Heels star forward Caleb Wilson.
Wilson's loss has mostly been felt through increases in playing time to three players: Jarin Stevenson, Luka Bogavac and Zayden High.
On the boards, High has been just as strong as Wilson, averaging nearly identical offensive and defensive rebound rates. However, Stevenson and, especially Bogavac, have moderate to strong drops in each category from Wilson.
The other impact this has is on the total number of available rebounds. That's because each of these three players are worse in effective field goal percentage than Wilson, and notably Bogavac launches 3s at a high rate, which lead to more rebounds.
All three also get to the line less, meaning fewer points come via way of the charity stripe, where available rebounds are less.
In three games without Wilson, UNC, the 42nd-ranked team in my model's schedule-adjusted rebounding, was outrebounded by No. 30 Pittsburgh by five boards, only outrebounded in-state rival NC State by two boards — despite the Wolfpack's No. 186 ranking in schedule-adjusted rebounding — and only claimed four more off the glass against No. 211 Syracuse.
Clearly there's been regression on the glass for UNC without Wilson, and I expect Sananda Fru (who would normally have seen plenty of Wilson) and Ryan Conwell (who will now have plenty of Bogavac opposite him) to benefit.
I'm projecting Fru for 7.2 boards vs. a 5.5 line (-145 at bet365) and Conwell for 5.5 against a 4.5 line (-115 at FanDuel), yielding 13.2% and 10.8% edges, respectively.
Pick: Sananda Fru Over 5.5 Rebounds | Ryan Conwell Over 4.5 Rebounds
Ryan Conwell Under 19.5 Points (-128)
Frankly, I'm shocked at how high this line is when looking at Conwell's numbers with Louisville's current rotation. Over the last seven games — since the return of Khani Rooths — Conwell's point totals are as follows: 12, 12, 11, 31, 14, 12 and 15.
That means he's stayed under this 19.5 line in six of seven, with a clear outlier of 31 points against NC State. The crazy thing is, he's faced an incredibly favorable schedule in those seven games for the type of shooter he is, yet he hasn't taken advantage of it.
See, Conwell shoots a ton of 3s (9.5 per game) and just faced six of seven teams that allow a top-60 rate nationally in percentage of points allowed from downtown, including five of those seven coming in the top 40.
Part of that comes from lower usage; Conwell has attempted just 7.6 triples per game over that seven-game stretch. And it's hard to see that 3-point attempt number climbing against UNC, which has been a different team defensively without Wilson.
In the three games Wilson has missed, opposing teams have made just 27% of points from outside the arc, which would rank around 320th nationally, as teams attack the inside while the Tar Heels are missing their best defender.
Compare that to the schedule he just faced — where he still stayed under this number in six of seven — and there's a strong chance he stays under here.
I'm generously projecting him for 17.1 points, as his recent dip in usage may be temporary and his recent shooting percentage also isn't a long-term reflection of the shooter he is.
Regardless, that's still well under the 19.5 line at Caesars (-128) or FanDuel (-130), and I'm also fine with under 18.5 (-110 at BetMGM) at the time of writing.
Pick: Ryan Conwell Under 19.5 Points
