NCAAB Odds, Pick for Creighton vs Seton Hall

Many expected the Creighton Bluejays to spend the season either at or near the top of the Big East standings. After a few recent slip-ups, the Bluejays find themselves jockeying with the middle of the pack, though Saturday offers a real chance to impress.

Seton Hall was expected to be among those in the depths of the Big East's competitive middle, but after a strong start, the Pirates are tied atop the standings with UConn.

Creighton is a team of extremes, on both ends of the floor.

Offensively, Greg McDermott's team is hunting high-quality looks from 3 or dunks and layups at the rim. The Bluejays toss up 3s at the seventh-highest rate in college hoops and although they don't take a ton of looks at the rim (333rd in percent of shots at the rim), they shoot the 10th-best percentage at the rim. If Creighton is going into the paint, it is for a high percentage look or a kick out to a shooter.

Defensively, the philosophy is mirrored. The Bluejays rank in the top five nationally in 3-point rate allowed and assist rate allowed and leading the nation in free throw rate allowed and highest percentage of points via 2-point baskets. No team forces its opponent into more 2-point jumpers than Creighton, with perimeter defenders running teams off the 3-point line and elite rim protector Ryan Kalkbrenner ready to alter shots near the bucket.

McDermott is betting that his shooters taking 3s, with a few dunks and layups mixed in, is a better recipe than the opponent forcing from the mid-range. It's a smart bet, but it is a bet. When Creighton shot just 6-for-26 from deep at UConn the other night, the Bluejays didn't have any other answers. As a result, betting on the Bluejays can often be a scary proposition.

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On the other end of the spectrum, Seton Hall is one of the least shooting-dependent teams in college basketball. No team in the Big East takes a lower percentage of their field goals from 3. Even when the Pirates shoot poorly, they are one of the country's best at rebounding their own misses.

Instead of relying on jumpers, Seton Hall is built upon the downhill driving style of its guards. Al-Amir Dawes, Dylan Addae-Wusu and Kadary Richmond are like running backs in the open field as they attack gaps to get in the paint.

The best chance to slow down the Pirates' attack is to force them into mistakes. Seton Hall turns the ball over on nearly 20% of its possessions, though that number ticks up to 22% in conference play, the worst mark in the Big East.

Two major things are in play when handicapping this game.

First, Creighton is the worst team in the nation at forcing turnovers. That bodes well for Seton Hall, though I'm not convinced the Pirates can protect the ball against any level of defense. Seton Hall's last single-digit turnover game was December 9 and, per KenPom, Seton Hall leads the Big East in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting the errors are self-inflicted.

The other big question is Creighton's shooting. This is a team built to win from beyond the arc. When they shoot poorly, the Bluejays are very vulnerable. How do we forecast their shooting? Looking back at recent outings might help. Creighton has made just 12 of its past 53 from long range and is shooting 29.7% over its past nine games after making over 40% in its first nine games.

I'm going to hold my nose and back the Bluejays on the road, assuming a hot night is coming sooner or later.

Pick: Creighton -3 or Better