Drake vs Indiana State Pick, Odds | Missouri Valley Championship Betting Guide (Sunday, March 10)

The Arch Madness title game will be a doozy in Saint Louis. Drake pulled out a narrow win over Bradley, while Indiana State won two games convincingly. I'll say this: Both teams deserve an NCAA Tournament bid regardless of the outcome. I don't care about other mediocre high-major teams such as Villanova and Seton Hall pushing for a tourney bid. Neither team is better than Drake or Indiana State.

But I'll step off the soapbox. Let's get to our Drake vs. Indiana State preview and pick in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship.

Drake's main ball-handler is back-to-back MVC Player of the Year winner Tucker DeVries. The highly dynamic scorer averages 21.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He's a big-time scorer who can attack from all three levels. Look for DeVries to really stand out.

But Drake has more than one offensive weapon, though. Atin Wright and freshman Kevin Overton both average double-digit points per game. Wright is a big-time shooter, connecting on 39% of his shots from deep. If the Bulldogs can keep up with Indiana State's offense, they'll need a big performance from Wright.

Similar to Indiana State, Drake struggles on defense. The Bulldogs' 2-point field goal defense ranks 231st nationally, but the team allows a ton of perimeter jumpers. Neither of those ingredients is ideal for containing the lethal Indiana State offense. The good thing? Drake doesn't allow offensive rebounds, posting the best defensive rebounding percentage in all of college basketball. It's not like the Sycamores have players in the paint to rebound anyway.

My biggest Bulldogs-related concern is big man Darnell Brodie. Coach John Schertz will carve out lanes for making Brodie defend in space, an area he struggles in. I can't see him playing prolonged minutes if Indiana State makes him defend pick-and-pop actions.

Indiana State cruised without a sweat to the conference championship with a 16-point win over Missouri State and a 23-point win over Northern Iowa. Some teams get tight and issues flare in the biggest moments. That's not the case for Schertz's squad.

The Sycamores' offense is a top-tier unit in the sport, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency. Schertz's five-out offensive scheme allows for ideal floor spacing, leading to cleaner driving lanes and more shooting space. That modern-day offense boasts the nation's best effective field goal percentage (60%) and the 10th-best 3-point percentage (38.4%).

Furthermore, all five Indiana State starters average double-digit points. The Sycamores have three players who average 16+ points, led by Robbie Avila, who boasts elite pick-and-pop ability and is incredibly skilled for his 6'11", 250-pound frame. Avila is Indiana State's best scorer and passer. He has the chance to become an NCAA Tournament legend if Indiana State secures this win.

Indiana State's biggest roadblock to securing a tournament bid is defense. The Sycamores rank 92nd in defensive efficiency and mainly struggle defending pick and role ball-handlers (ranking in the eight percentile in P&R ball-handler defense). I'd be a bit terrified facing Drake's skilled ball-handlers.

The two teams split the regular season series, with Drake winning at home and Indiana State defending its home court. With a neutral court, I'll roll with the Sycamores, who won have five straight games by 12+ points. After losing a couple of games last month, Indiana State just rounded back into form like it's nothing.

Some super athletic teams — or teams who can exploit Avila's defense — can cause problems, but I don't think Drake will win a possible track meet.

Pick: Indiana State -1 (Play to -2)

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW