Florida vs Michigan Odds, Pick for Tuesday

Below, we have Florida vs Michigan odds and a pick for Tuesday.

Since losing to Wake Forest, Florida has ripped off three consecutive victories to improve to 7-3. Last time out, the Gators knocked off East Carolina 70-65 in the Florida Tip-Off, and they've got three more non-conference opportunities to improve to 10-3 before hitting SEC play.

First, they need to beat Michigan.

The Wolverines improved to 6-5 after beating Eastern Michigan on Saturday during head coach Juwan Howard's return to the lead chair — Howard worked as an assistant while recovering from offseason heart surgery.

His return comes just in time for year two of the Jumpma Invitational in Charlotte, North Carolina.

In the event's inaugural year, Michigan lost to North Carolina, while Florida lost to Oklahoma.

Michigan has won three of the previous four meetings with Florida, including three in the NCAA Tournament.

This time around, Florida is a two-point favorite with a total of 158.5 points.

Florida is playing fast, ranking 16th nationally in adjusted tempo and 12th in average offensive possession. The increased pace has resulted in 82.3 points per game.

The Gators essentially have five double-digit scorers. Guard Walter Clayton Jr. leads the team at 16.5 points per game and is second with 3.6 assists per. He is coming off a strong performance against ECU, scoring 22 points on an efficient 9-for-16 from the field.

Forward Tyrese Samuel is averaging 13.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game on 61.9% shooting from the field. He's a big reason why the Gators are fourth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.

The Gators rank 32nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

But they're not far behind on the defensive end, ranking 53rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Florida has four players averaging over a steal per game, averaging 7.3 as a team. They are also averaging five blocks per game and rank 33rd nationally, with reserve forward Alex Condon leading the team at 1.2 per game.

The Gators' defense has struggled to defend the perimeter, with opponents shooting 38% from deep, ranking 245th nationally.

One area of weakness for the Gators is 3-point percentage defense. They're allowing opponents to shoot 37.8% from three, 245th nationally.

That could be a problem against Michigan.

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The Wolverines haven't struggled to score, ranking 20th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Point guard Dug McDaniel has taken a considerable leap in his sophomore season, leading the team with 18 points per game and five assists per.

Tennessee transfer forward Olivier Nkamhoua is averaging 16.5 points and a team-leading 7.3 rebounds per game. He is very familiar with the Gators from his time in the SEC. He will look to have a more significant impact this time around, as he averaged just 8.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in his last two games against them.

McDaniel and Nkamhoua are among five Wolverines shooting at 37% from beyond the arc. Unsurprisingly, the team is shooting 37.8% from, 42nd nationally. Forward Will Tschetter has earned more minutes at the five of late and is a scorching 12-for-18 (66.7%) from deep.

Michigan averages 82 per game but allows 76 per game, ranking 126th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents have found success against Michigan both inside and outside the arc. However, it has particularly struggled to defend the 3, ranking 297th in 3-point shooting allowing (36.2%).

Teams have also earned extra possessions against the Wolverines via offensive rebounds and ball security. Michigan is 202nd in defensive rebounding percentage and 278th in turnover percentage. It is only averaging 4.5 steals per game, the 15th fewest in the country.

Michigan has played at a slower pace than Florida this season. However, between its offensive proficiency and defensive struggles, Wolverine games have averaged 158.1 points per game, with the Over hitting in nine of 11.

Florida will push the pace and create a few extra possessions, and the offense should score against Michigan. Gator games are 6-3-1 to the Over this year.

This game could have a lot of 3s, with both teams struggling to defend the long ball. If both teams knock down 10 threes apiece, we’re already 40% of the way towards the Over.

Even if they aren’t falling, Florida should control the offensive glass, setting up opportunities for second-chance points.

KenPom projects the total at 161 points, so there's some value with the Over 158.5 at FanDuel.

Both squads can drop 80 points on any given night, so I'll happily bet the Over in Charlotte.

Pick: Over 158.5 (Play to 161)

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