Georgia Tech vs Georgia Odds, Pick for Tuesday

Below, we have Georgia Tech vs Georgia odds and a pick for Tuesday.

The Yellow Jackets are on a heater, picking up back-to-back victories over Mississippi State and Duke as double-digit underdogs.

First-year head coach Damon Stoudamire is doing a great job with this crew.

Georgia has won three straight, including downing Florida State after trailing by 17 with under seven minutes left. Mike White’s squad has some nice balance, but the ceiling still seems low.

Ultimately, I’m betting on a fast-paced, high-flying game.

Georgia Tech returned four of its five top starters from last year’s Josh Pastner-led squad, giving Stoudamire a solid foundation on which to build.

The returning producers are playing well in the early going, especially guard Miles Kelly, who's averaging 18.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, albeit on horrific shooting splits (36%/28%/71%).

Kelly poured in 16 points against Duke and added a double-double against Mississippi State, establishing himself as Georgia Tech’s star in its two biggest games of the young season.

Kelly’s ball-handling and decision-making have been significant for Stoudamire, who runs a very ball-screen-heavy offense. Georgia Tech runs pick-and-roll at the fifth-highest rate in the nation. Georgia Tech’s star is taking care of the ball (an absurdly low 8.8% turnover rate), but the rest of the team needs to improve in that department.

Defensively, Stoudamire runs a one-through-five switch, and his Pacific teams were always tough defensively.

It seems like Georgia Tech has improved on that end post-Pastner, as the Jackets have snuck up to 81st nationally in eFG% allowed.

That said, most of the improvement has been smoke and mirrors, as Jacket opponents have made only 28% of their 3-pointers (41st nationally) and scored only .65 PPP on unguarded jumpers (fifth nationally). More open shots will fall against them, and their defensive metrics will sink.

Georgia Tech added a lot of talent and depth in the frontcourt this season, and the interior duo of Florida transfer Kowacie Reeves and Western Carolina transfer Tyzhaun Claude have slapped around plenty of shots (Georgia Tech ranks 13th nationally in block rate).

The Yellow Jackets' rim defense has been solid (63.8%), but they’re still allowing too many shots down low (34 paint points per game allowed).

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White returned four guys from last year’s team — including two starters — and added five upperclassmen transfers and four high-upside freshmen.

So far, the experience has been shining. Georgia has posted wins over FSU and Wake Forest, and the Bulldogs’ only three losses have come against KenPom top-50 teams (Oregon, Miami, Providence).

The Bulldogs boast plenty of depth and size. They’re top-90 nationally in bench minutes and top-30 in average height.

7-foot South Florida transfer Russel Tchewa has bulked up the interior, while returning stretch-four Jabri Abdur-Rahim has improved into the team’s leading scorer (13.5 PPG).

Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain have had the most significant impact among the incoming freshmen, the former in the starting lineup and the latter off the bench.

VCU transfer Jalen DeLoach has been the team’s best defender by EvanMiya’s DBPR ratings, but it’s important to note he’s questionable for this contest with an illness.

Illinois transfer RJ Melendez has been a rock-solid two-way swingman as well.

All this is most evident on the interior, as the Bulldogs rank top-60 nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (45%). All these versatile defenders have helped boost Georgia’s pick-and-roll defense, which could prove vital in this matchup.

However, like Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs have gotten lucky on defense, allowing only .76 PPP on unguarded jumpers (18th nationally). More open shots should fall against these guys from now on.

On offense, Georgia leverages its depth to run the floor in transition and set up plenty of ball screens to generate isolation mismatches. The Bulldogs also love to shoot, ranking top-70 nationally in 3-point rate.

So far, it’s yielded questionable results, but the Bulldogs are taking care of the ball and getting to the line, which is good.

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I don’t particularly like this matchup for Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets likely struggle to score in their pick-and-roll sets against a rock-solid Georgia ball-screen defense.

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s lackadaisical ball-screen defense (.90 PPP allowed, 14th percentile) probably struggles to stop the Bulldogs’ own pick-and-roll sets. And the Yellow Jackets’ transition defense has been bad (1.05 PPP allowed, 35th percentile), which bodes poorly against an up-tempo Georgia attack.

That said, I can’t lay five with Georgia against Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs are the worse team from a pure talent perspective and don't have a crunch-time, go-to scorer like Kelly. They’re 4-0 SU at home this year, but only 1-3 ATS.

Plus, most projection systems agree the market is slightly overvaluing Georgia. Our own Action PRO Model projects the Yellow Jackets as only 3.5-point road underdogs on Tuesday.

Instead, I think I like the over here.

Both teams play relatively quickly, and Georgia will score in transition against Georgia Tech.

If the Bulldogs can pour in half-court ball-screen buckets against the Yellow Jackets, they should score quickly and efficiently.

But, most importantly, I like the over because both teams are due for negative 3-point shooting regression on defense.

Both squads are getting lucky on unguarded jumpers allowed, and both squads should take advantage because they love to shoot it – Georgia and Georgia Tech rank among the top 130 teams nationally in 3-point rate.

I’m projecting a fast-paced, shot-happy game script. Hopefully, the shots fall and the over cruises.

Pick: Over 145.5 (Play to 146)

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