The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the Saint Mary's Gaels in Moraga, California. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Gonzaga is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 143 points.
Here’s my Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's prediction and college basketball picks for February 28, 2026.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's Prediction
My Pick: Under 143
My Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's best bet is on the Under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Odds
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 143 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 143 -110o / -110u | +105 |
- Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's spread: Gonzaga -1.5, Saint Mary's +1.5
- Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's over/under: 143 Points
- Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's moneyline: Gonzaga -125, Saint Mary's +105
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Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's College Basketball Betting Preview
Gonzaga Basketball
The Gonzaga Bulldogs can clinch the WCC regular season title in their last year in the conference with a win on Saturday in Moraga.
The Bulldogs have rattled off six consecutive wins after losing to Portland on February 4th.
I have very little faith in Gonzaga's offense.
Graham Ike is the only reliable source of scoring, posting 19.8 points per game while shooting 56% from the field.
Due to Braden Huff’s injury, the next top-scoring Zag is Tyon Grant-Foster, at 11.1 points per game. The issue with him and most other Zags is that he’s a non-shooter. That’s why Gonzaga shoots a woeful 30% from downtown.
The guard play is very unlike Gonzaga. We’re used to superb point guard play, but there are only two Nembhards, and the Zags got spoiled. Now, Mario Saint-Supery and Braeden Smith are running the show, and both have struggled. Saint-Supery is the better of the two, as he shoots 44% from downtown.
Keep an eye on Davis Fogle, a 6-foot-7 athletic freshman wing. He’s getting more and more playing time and has a different offensive gear than most on this roster.
The Zags hang their hat on the defensive end. Mark Few boasts one of the best defensive units he’s had in Spokane, ranking 12th nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
However, the Bulldogs regressed in February. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this month, per Torvik. Gonzaga is still forcing turnovers at a 23% rate — a top-10 mark in America. But the issue is interior defense, as opponents shoot 51% from 2-point-range.
Saint Mary's Basketball
Saint Mary’s made a real statement win on Wednesday against Santa Clara. The slow-paced Gaels dominated the offensive glass and kept the Broncos out of transition in a blowout victory.
Since losing to Gonzaga in Spokane, the Gaels rattled off seven consecutive wins, six of which came by double-digits. Sitting at No. 24 in KenPom, Saint Mary’s feels close to a tournament lock, but a little breathing room wouldn’t hurt.
As usual, Saint Mary’s is an elite defensive outfit, ranking 20th nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Gaels are so well-coached and win on the margins. They give up offensive rebounds only 24% of the time, while sending teams to the line at a 26% rate.
So, you have to make shots from the floor to beat Saint Mary’s, but it holds teams to 46% from 2-point range and 30% from 3-point range.
It’s easier said than done to beat a Randy Bennett defense.
Things are a bit archaic on the offensive end. The Gaels rank 45th nationally in offensive efficiency, and they drain over 18 seconds off the shot clock on average. The cerebral Gaels mostly operate in ball-screens, often with the steady play of point guard Joshua Dent.
Dent is the consummate Saint Mary’s point guard. Not only is Dent an Aussie, but he’s also a dynamic scorer, averaging 13.3 points and 5.8 assists per game while shooting 38% from deep. He’ll provide the Gaels with a sizable point guard advantage.
Paulius Murauskas leads the Gaels in scoring with 18.9 points per game, and he leads them in rebounding with 7.7 rebounds per game. He’s really refined his game by being more aggressive and reaching the free-throw line over six times per game — doubling last year’s amount.
Saint Mary’s ranks just 45th nationally in offensive efficiency. The best source of scoring for the Gaels is shooting, as they connect on 38% of their 3s. However, they only shoot from deep about 35% of the time.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Betting Analysis
If Gonzaga can hold Saint Mary’s off the offensive glass, it can make things tough.
The Gaels grab offensive boards 38% of the time, and it can often bail out their offense.
The total is sitting at 143, and I find it hard to see either team reaching the 70s.
Sure, Gonzaga is a fast-paced team, but Saint Mary’s is terrific at keeping teams from running in transition.
Limiting transition begins with limiting turnovers, and the Gaels turn it over 16% of the time.
If they limit the turnovers, this will be a very low-scoring game. I'm banking on that happening.
My Pick: Under 143
