College Basketball Odds & Pick for Houston vs TCU: Defenses to Step Up?

It's time to take a look at college basketball odds for Houston vs. TCU and make a pick for Saturday's game in our college basketball betting preview on Jan. 13.

Houston entered Tuesday night as the final unbeaten in college basketball, but its road loss to Iowa State is a reminder of not only the parity in the sport, but how much more difficult life will be for the Cougars now in the Big 12. The Cougars played a national average strength of schedule in the non-conference, but will be immediately and repeatedly tested now that the schedule has shifted to league play.

The Cougars head to Fort Worth on Saturday to take on TCU in a matchup between two teams that are quite physical and are well designed to neutralize the other's offensive strength.

Both of these offenses have turnover issues and neither will be able to rely on superior athleticism to beat the other. The total is too high as a result and Houston's ability to control pace with its elite transition defense should keep this game at the Cougars' preferred pace.

Houston turned the ball over on 25.8% of its possessions in its loss to Iowa State. That's the biggest question facing the Cougars as they enter the gauntlet that is Big 12 play. Houston typically dominated inferior athletes in the American, but will now need to consistently overcome the ball pressure that so many Big 12 defenses utilize. It won't always be this way — Houston mauled West Virginia in an easy win last week — but the Cougars' offense is currently overvalued by the market.

Houston is going to have turnover issues more than the market suggests, and it will be hard to dominate the offensive glass in this matchup. Houston managed a 34.4% offensive rebounding rate at ISU, which is very good, but considerably worse than its season average.

The Cougars have proven under Kelvin Sampson that they can produce and maintain an elite defense against any team in the country. Miami knocked them out of the tournament last year with absurd shot making, but TCU isn't built the same way offensively.

TCU boasts one of the best transition offenses in the country and most teams don't have the ability to keep up with the Horned Frogs when they attack the rim offensively. However, TCU doesn't have much shooting from the perimeter, and it'll be difficult to get to the interior of the Cougars' defense.

No offense in the country runs in transition more than the Horned Frogs, per ShotQuality, and they rank fourth in average shot quality once they do. The problem is that Houston is extremely elite at slowing teams down into the half court. The Cougars rank 343rd in defensive average possession length. They take away passing lanes better than any defense in the country and force teams to have quality shot making in isolation situations.

The Horned Frogs rank outside the top 100 offensively in shot making metrics, per SQ. Usually, they make up for it with offensive rebounds, and even though Houston prioritizes havoc and forcing turnovers over defensive rebounding, the Cougars can be a very capable rebounding unit because of their athleticism.

TCU has the length and depth to keep attacking Houston's offense, and its ball pressure should force Houston into more turnovers than the Cougars are used to.

In many ways, Houston is a better version of TCU. The strengths of each team should cancel each other out in this game. Houston's slow tempo will control the game and, as a result, the total is too high.

I'd bet the under at 136 or better.

Pick: Under 138.5 (-110)

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