The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, Maryland. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Illinois is favored by 15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1600. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois vs. Maryland prediction and college basketball picks for March 8, 2026.
Illinois vs Maryland Prediction
My Pick: Illinois -15.5
My Illinois vs Maryland best bet is on the Fighting Illini to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs. Maryland Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 146.5 -110 / -110 | -1600 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 146.5 -110 / -110 | +900 |
- Illinois vs Maryland spread: Illinois -15.5
- Illinois vs Maryland over/under: 146.5 points
- Illinois vs Maryland moneyline: Illinois -1600, Maryland +900
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Illinois vs Maryland College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois Basketball
Illinois is the classic “bad team slayer” in the Big Ten. That’s not to say the Illini can’t beat good teams — they have and can. It’s more about Illinois beating its last three opponents outside the top 60 in KenPom by 26+ points.
The Fighting Illini have a different gear than most thanks to the most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom. They have five shooters on the floor most times, leading to a 51% 3-point rate — and they make 35% of them.
When the 3s don’t fall, Illinois can keep the possession going, as it ranks third with a 39% offensive rebound rate.
Stopping an offense that's top-15 in turnover rate, top-five in offensive rebound rate and top-40 in effective field goal percentage is just brutal for defenses. The Illini just wear teams down and pummel them when their energy is gone.
Surefire top-10 NBA selection and potential All-American Keaton Wagler leads Illinois with 18 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. His brilliance in January created very lofty standards to where it feels off that he scored 20+ points just once in his last five games.
All five starters average 10+ points per game. Andrej Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell are healthy and both average 13 points a night.
I’d call David Mirkovic the second most important player on the roster, though. At 6-foot-9, 255 pounds, Mirkovic’s toughness and physical play on the glass is a huge reason for the rebounding success. Plus, he dishes 2.5 assists per game and shoots 37% from deep.
On the defensive end, Illinois is very strong. Oddly, the Illini rank last nationally in defensive turnover rate, but they hold opponents to 47% shooting from inside the arc and 31% from deep.
Illinois doesn’t gamble much defensively. If you couldn’t tell from its lack of turnovers, it also ranks first nationally in defensive free-throw rate.
You have to make shots to score on the Illini.
Maryland Basketball
Maryland must be thankful for Big Ten expansion leading to the league inviting all 18 teams to the conference tournament instead of just 15.
Dissecting whether Maryland will compete or get blown out is a pretty easy task. If the Terrapins shoot well from deep, they can cover the spread — if not, they’ll be the latest victim to lose to Illinois by 30.
I’m not quite sure what Buzz Williams is doing late in the season. The best offense for the Terps is the “let Diggy Coit cook” offense. His shot hunting tendencies and lack of defense led to Williams putting him in the dog house.
Coit played between six and 19 minutes in his last four games. The Terps scored fewer than 0.95 points per possession in three of those four games.
Sure, their defense is marginally better. Wisconsin had no issues, though. The Badgers scored 1.35 PPP against them.
Williams is a defensive coach, so it’s no surprise that he’s unhappy about his team ranking 140th in defensive efficiency. The Terrapins allow teams to shoot 37% from 3 (340th) and 54.3% from inside the arc (283rd)
Illinois vs. Maryland Betting Analysis
I’ll lay the points with Illinois here.
Maryland looks like a corpse and not playing Coit is a prime example of Williams over coaching.
It might not matter anyways, but Maryland probably sits in the 60-65 point range in this matchup.
Can Illinois score at least 80? I think pretty easily.
My Pick: Illinois -15.5
