The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Iowa State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -192. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Baylor prediction and college basketball picks for January 7, 2026.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Pick
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 155.5 -112o / -108u | -192 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 155.5 -112o / -108u | +160 |
My Pick: Iowa State -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Iowa State vs Baylor best bet is on the Cyclones to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs Baylor NCAAB Betting Preview
Iowa State Basketball
Iowa State continues to impress during the T.J. Otzelberger era. The Cyclones are one of the few unbeaten teams at 14-0, boasting one of the most impressive wins of the season — a road win at Purdue by 23 points.
The Cyclones' defense is one of the best in the country. They rank fifth in KenPom's defense efficiency and lead the country with a 25% turnover rate.
Getting past the guard defenders is a huge chore for opposing teams. Tamin Lipsey is a dominant on-ball defender, and driving past him is tough.
That also applies to the freshman guard, Killyan Toure. He's helped put Iowa State back where it wants to be defensively. Last season, Iowa State had more offensive-centric guards, but Toure was built in a lab to play for Coach Otz.
This is also the best offensive team for Otzelberger during his time in Ames, ranking seventh in offensive efficiency. The Cyclones are an elite perimeter shooting team, connecting on 41% of their shots from deep, and are 23rd in 2-point field goal percentage.
Iowa State has one of the most unique players in the country in 6-foot-8 forward Joshua Jefferson. According to KenPom, Jefferson is second in the National Player of the Year race behind only Duke's Cam Boozer.
Fresh off a triple-double in his last game, Jefferson will look to post another one on the road. He averages 17.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game.
The Cyclones have no dead weight in their starting five, as all five starters (Lipsey, Jefferson, Toure, Milan Momcilovic and Blake Buchanan) average 10+ points per game. Momcilovic leads Iowa State with 18.7 points a night while shooting an absurd 56% from deep on 103 attempts.
If you're looking to find a weakness for the Cyclones, you'll have to keep searching because there isn't one.
Baylor Basketball
Baylor is 10-3 and is coming off an unimpressive road loss to TCU. The best win on the Bears' resume to date is a neutral-site victory over Creighton and a home victory over Washington. That means the Bears could use a resume-boosting win.
There's no denying the dominance of this Baylor offense, which ranks 12th in offensive efficiency. The Bears shoot 37% from deep and also score at an efficient 56% clip inside the arc. The biggest strength for Baylor's offense comes on offensive boards, as the Bears grab 41% of their misses.
If the Bears want to score consistently in this one, they'll need to shoot well from deep. They have a bunch of athleticism, but driving on Iowa State is easier said than done.
Scott Drew has a pair of potential All-Big 12 players in Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou. Carr leads Baylor with 21 points per game, and he regularly flashes highlight dunks and creative shots from deep. Yessoufou is an imposing athlete with a chiseled 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame, but the Cyclones could bait him into 3s, and he shoots just 30% from deep.
To me, the lack of depth for Baylor is a major concern. Even with adding former NBA draft pick James Nnaji, the Bears' rotation only rolls about nine players deep. Playing against Iowa State can really wear teams down, and that'll be a real problem for Baylor's depth.
A more significant issue is Baylor's defense, a familiar trend. By adding Ron Sanchez, a member of the Tony Bennett coaching tree, it was hoped that some of the Bears' defensive woes would be solved. Instead, the Bears are 97th in defensive efficiency.
In a sense, Sanchez has done well to limit teams from scoring at the hoop, as Baylor is holding teams to 47% shooting on 2s.
However, some things are out of Sanchez's control, and that's Baylor's issues on the boards. It allows offensive boards on 32% of misses, and Nnaji didn't help the issues against TCU, as the Frogs grabbed 19 offensive boards.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Betting Analysis
I adore this Iowa State team and think it's the third-best team in the country.
Some teams are good enough to not to be phased by playing road games, and this veteran Cyclones team is one of them.
I'll gladly lay the number — up to -6.5 — with Iowa State in Waco.
My Pick: Iowa State -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
