Ivy League Championship Pick, Odds: Brown vs Yale (Sunday, March 17)

What a huge surprise in the Ivy League semifinals. The No. 4-seeded Brown Bears sent the No. 1-seeded Princeton Tigers packing in short order. In the other semifinal, the Yale Bulldogs controlled the game against Cornell from tipoff and will now look to finish last season’s unfinished business.

Brown has won seven straight games, including a win in the regular-season finale against Yale. On paper, nothing stands out about the Bears, who won just 13 games all year heading into the title game.

Mike Martin’s team has scored at least one point per possession in five consecutive games, coinciding with the Bears' winning streak. Brown already beat the three best teams in the conference, so beating Yale wouldn't come as a huge surprise. The latest Ivy League Championship odds have Yale -7.5, with the total at 134.

Read more for my Ivy League Championship pick.

Brown’s offense relies on two players: Kino Lilly Jr and Nana Owusu-Anane. Lilly is arguably the best scoring guard in the conference, and proved that with 27 points and 10 assists against Princeton.

Brown needs to shoot it well from deep, with the Bears attempting 3s on 40% of field goal attempts. It could be a long night for the Bears if those shots don’t fall, but the outlook is different if Brown shoots it well.

The Bears could also create an advantage on the glass. Brown ranks top 100 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, led by Owusu-Anane and Kalu Anya. Very few Ivy League squads can rival Yale’s intimidating size — but Brown is the exception.

Princeton deployed an interesting theory late in the game to try slowing down Brown’s offense. The Bears are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, so Princeton started fouling down double digits with three minutes remaining. It wouldn’t surprise me if Yale opted to deploy a similar tactic.

The Bulldogs boast a ton of experience and length, leading to very good defensive numbers. Yale’s ideal game script is a low-scoring game. That’s exactly what Yale got in the semifinal matchup against Cornell, winning 69-57. Holding a top-100 offense to 0.86 PPP is no simple task.

Yale forces opponents into taking 3s because of its effectiveness at containing the 2-point shot. Opponents shoot 3s on 42% of field goals against Yale, and Bez Mbeng as the point of attack defender is the primary reason. Mbeng locks up opposing guards like it’s his day job. But he struggled slowing down the tough shot-making Lilly, allowing 26 points to Brown’s star just last week.

On the offensive end, Yale will look for an inside scoring attack from interior players Danny Wolf and Matt Knowling. The 7-footer Wolf provides floor-stretching ability at the five, but is facing more physical and athletic defenders. He will need to use his height advantage to score in this one.

The real offensive key is shooting from wings August Mahoney and John Poulakidas. Yale’s offense is fairly light on shooting 3s, attempting outside shots on just 35% of field goal attempts. That’s a byproduct of Mahoney and Poulakidas being the only two dead-eye shooters, but both connect on over 38% of shots from 3.

The total feels a bit light here. I expect Yale to win and make the NCAA Tournament, but don’t have a strong feeling on either side of the spread. The Over makes sense, however, considering both regular-season meetings between the two went over this total with relative ease.

Neither team is super fast-paced, but recent results lend credence to believing both teams can crack the 70-point mark and thus hit on the Over in the Ivy League championship game.

Pick: Over 134

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