The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Arizona. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Arizona is favored by 18 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2500. The total is set at 172 points.
Here’s my Kansas State vs. Arizona prediction and college basketball picks for January 7, 2026.
Kansas State vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Over 169.5 (Play to 171)
My Kansas State vs Arizona best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas State vs. Arizona Odds, Spread
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -110 | 172 -110o / -110u | +1250 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -110 | 172 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
- Kansas State vs Arizona spread: Arizona -18
- Kansas State vs Arizona over/under: 172 points
- Kansas State vs Arizona moneyline: Kansas State +1250, Arizona -2500
Kansas State vs Arizona NCAAB Betting Preview
Kansas State Basketball
Kansas State looks like it could hang near the bottom of the Big 12 this season. The Wildcats are 9-5 and sit at No. 85 in KenPom.
The biggest struggle for the Wildcats from Manhattan is beating good teams, as they've lost four of their five games against top-50 opponents.
The Wildcats will look to push the pace in this one, as they sit 14th in adjusted tempo.
They'll also aim for some positive regression from their ugly 3-for-21 shooting performance in a loss to BYU on Saturday. That performance is an outlier, as Kansas State shoots 38% from deep this season.
Jerome Tang has a bona fide stud in PJ Haggerty to run the show. He leads Kansas State with 23 points and 4.6 assists per game. Haggerty also has a trio of 40% 3-point shooters in Abdi Bashir Jr., David Castillo and Nate Johnson to benefit from his driving.
The defense is another story for Kansas State. It ranks just 102nd in defensive efficiency and is outside the top 130 in 2-point and 3-point percentage.
The Wildcats' lack of length could sting them in this one. The starting "center" for Coach Tang is Khamari McGriff at 6-foot-9 and they have forward Taj Manning at 6-foot-7. Tang can also go to 7-foot-2 junior Dorin Buca, who blocks over a shot per game.
Still, the interior play is a major concern.
Arizona Basketball
Arizona will be favored by 20+ in a fair number of league games this season. That'll happen when you're 14-0 with some very dominant wins over teams like Alabama, Auburn and UConn.
The Wildcats from Tucson are one of the better two-way teams in the country. They rank ninth in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency.
They're so big and so tough that it could be a real issue for Kansas State. At all times, Arizona has a center that can grab offensive rebounds at a high rate. Tobe Awaka ranks as the top offensive rebounder in America, and Mo Krivas is top-20 in offensive rebound rate.
Krivas starts the game, and Awaka comes in later. Opposing teams with no size have almost no chance to make up for the Wildcats' strong interior.
Plus, Arizona uses its size to limit teams from scoring at the hoop, as teams shoot just 43% on 2s against them.
That's no surprise with the Cats starting a 7-footer with 6-foot-8 Koa Peat and 6-foot-9 Ivan Kharchenkov.
I also think Arizona is just scratching the surface of its offensive upside. In the early going, the question was, who is the "guy" for the Wildcats' offense? That sounds crazy for a team that sits top-10 in offensive efficiency.
We now know that Brayden Burries, who scored 15+ points in seven of his last nine games, is the guy. Burries is one of six Arizona players who average 10+ points per game. Peat also sits with 13, as does stud point guard Jaden Bradley.
I really respect Tommy Lloyd for leaning into what works. The Wildcats attempt 3s on just 28% of their field goal attempts, and they don't have many shooters. So, it gets the ball to the hoop and grabs offensive boards at a 41.8% clip.
That'll make you an elite offense, even if you don't have elite shooters.
Kansas State vs. Arizona Betting Analysis
I don't like either side of the spread here. Arizona laying 20 is a lot against a Kansas State team that can get hot from deep and keep it close enough.
What I'm certain of is that Arizona will dominate Kansas State on the glass. Plus, both teams will look to push it in transition. That should allow Arizona to reach triple digits.
With the total sitting at 169.5, if Arizona scores 100 points, all Kansas State needs to do is score 70, which I think it does.
So, I'll roll with the over here, even with a big total.
My Pick: Over 169.5 (Play to 171)
