College Basketball Odds, Pick for Kansas State vs Kansas

Let's get ready for the final Sunflower Showdown of the season. The Kansas State Wildcats pulled off a thrilling overtime win over their heated rivals in Manhattan in the last meeting between the two and will look for the sweep over the Kansas Jayhawks in rival territory.

Kansas State nearly entered this huge rivalry game on a three-game winning streak, but Cincinnati drilled a late-game 3 for the win. I came away impressed by the Wildcats' offense in the loss after they connected on 9-of-21 shots from distance. That's much better than their season shooting percentage of 31% from deep. But the loss put a huge damper in the Kansas State's tournament hopes.

Turnovers have destroyed Kansas State's offense this year, with the Wildcats giving the ball away on 21.4% of possessions. It's hard to generate offensive flow when nearly a quarter of possessions end without getting a shot off. Not only is Kansas State turning the ball over too much, it shoots too many 3s for a team that's not efficient at shooting. There aren't a lot of positives coming on the offensive end for Jerome Tang's squad.

The one positive lately? Tylor Perry is playing well. The dynamite scoring super senior, Perry scored 26+ points in the past two games and is 12-of-20 from deep during those games. Kansas State needs the North Texas version of Perry in the final stretch for any chance at making a run to the Big Dance.

Kansas State keeps its head above water on the defensive end, ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats excel at forcing tough shots, leading to the 16th-best effective field goal percentage allowed in the country. The 2-point defense is notably strong, with Kansas State holding opponents to 48% from inside the arc.

Kansas just lost back-to-back games last week and will look to take its frustrations out against Kansas State. The Jayhawks couldn't slow down BYU's elite shooting attack and Baylor popped off for 82 points against the typically stout Kansas defense. The one good thing is Kevin McCullar Jr. has returned from a nagging knee injury and looks like the pre-injury McCullar. He scored 20 points in the loss against Baylor despite shooting 0-of-5 from 3.

The one issue with the Jayhawks is shooting. Kansas has flashed shooting woes throughout the year and is hitting on 34% of shots from 3. Bill Self wants to work Hunter Dickinson inside like he always does with elite bigs. It just comes down to players hitting shots when Dickinson finds them off double teams. If Kansas makes teams pay for doubling Dickinson, it could change how teams operate.

Moreover, the Jayhawks dish the ball better than anyone in the sport, tallying assists on 67% of made field goals. Everybody in the starting five can pass; DaJuan Harris Jr. and McCullar combine for 10 dimes per game and KJ Adams Jr. is the ultimate glue guy at the four spot. The high-low game between Adams and Dickinson is a work of beauty.

Kansas favored by 10 feels like the perfect line here. The Jayhawks, who rarely lose in Lawrence, lost their previous home game while Kansas State is playing much better.

To me, it comes down to Kansas State looking poor in road games against really good teams. Previously, the Wildcats lost by more than 10 against Iowa State and Houston. Plus, Dickinson could generate foul trouble for the Kansas State bigs and sink its depth.

Rock Chalk for me here.

Pick: Kansas -10.5