NCAAB Odds, Pick | Kentucky vs Louisville Preview

When the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals are playing their best basketball, the rivalry between these two programs can stand toe-to-toe with the best rivalries in college sports.

Right now, that's sadly not the case.

Kentucky is holding up its end of the bargain, as it's ranked in the polls and boasts some high-profile victories. Louisville, on the other hand, is a program in shambles. The Cardinals have lost games to Chattanooga, DePaul and Arkansas State and don't have a win over a top-200 team by KenPom's metrics.

Louisville limps into a home edition of this heated rivalry, aiming to knock off Big Blue. Let's breakdown its chances to do so, or at least stay within the point spread.

After a few years of clogged spacing and ugly shooting percentages, John Calipari has assembled the best shooting team he's ever had at Kentucky, by both percentage and national ranking.

Because of that, his Wildcats are taking 3s at higher rates than ever before, though for the old school-minded Calipari, that still places them around the national median.

The two best shooters on the team have arguably been freshmen Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, who are knocking down a combined 52% from long range.

It's felt like Calipari doesn't quite trust his first-year guards. Each has started just one game this season and they rank fourth and seventh, respectively, on the team in minutes per game. Sheppard played 39 minutes against UNC Wilmington, but just 25 against North Carolina.

At times, this team feels like a thoroughbred horse early in a race (excuse the corniness of a racing analogy in a Kentucky-Louisville preview). Calipari is the jockey holding his horse back, saving something for later in the race.

If we were to see a version of this team built around Sheppard and Dillingham, with a big flashing green light to shoot, they'd have a scary high ceiling. Maybe we're building to that, since it's been hard to argue with the results to date. Kentucky is 8-2 with a top-15 offense and is coming off a win over North Carolina.

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It's hard to find silver linings in this Louisville season. I suppose it's nice that the Cardinals have managed to reach a 5-6 record, considering they finished last season 4-28.

Louisville's last game, a win over Pepperdine, was its last against a non-power opponent, with every remaining game on the schedule coming against a top-100 team, except for dates with Georgia Tech and Notre Dame (the February 21 game between the Irish and the Cardinals is for sickos only, with last place in the ACC surely on the line).

It's also nice that the roster is at least young. Leading scorer Skyy Clark did some interesting things in his freshman season at Illinois before transferring to Louisville.

He's joined in the rotation by two more sophomores, two freshmen, a junior and a fourth-year senior with more eligibility. Whenever Kenny Payne is relieved of his duties, the new coach maybe has a chance to start a rebuild with some talent returning.

I say when, not if, Payne loses his job because that feels inevitable. This team is a disaster by ACC standards. The Cardinals play inefficiently offensively and look lost defensively. Their best performance this season was a close loss to Texas, in which the Longhorns shot 2-of-17 from 3, while Louisville topped 43% from outside.

That felt like a miracle performance with plenty of shooting luck and it still wasn't good enough to beat a Texas team that's a step below Kentucky.

Louisville's off-the-court drama, replete with coaching rumors and roster machinations, have make the season feel more even more dismal. In reality, this team is 5-6, but needed overtime to beat New Mexico State and beat UMBC by just one point.

While the Cardinals might have scared Texas, it's hard to see them repeating that shooting luck again here. In fact, Louisville looks in line for some serious shooting regression defensively. The Cards are seeing just 29% of their 3s allowed drop in, with their last nine opponents combining to shoot 23% from long range.

That is a scary place to be when facing this Kentucky team. The Wildcats should have no issues offensively, spreading out Louisville and finding high-value looks from all over the floor.

If you're hoping for some rivalry magic from the home team, it's hard to imagine this sluggish, poor shooting Louisville team keeping pace. This "home" crowd will likely be filled with invaders from Big Blue Nation, plus plenty of Louisville fans ready for the schadenfreude and a chance to call for the coach's job.

Pick: Kentucky -14 or Better

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