College Basketball Pick & Prediction for Lehigh vs Colgate

Lehigh takes on Colgate on Wednesday, March 13, at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network in the Patriot League Championship.  Here's a college basketball pick and prediction for Lehigh vs Colgate.

The Colgate Raiders have a chance to make a fourth straight NCAA tournament, but they need to beat the Lehigh Mountain Hawks in the Patriot League Championship first.

This game almost didn't happen. Lehigh trailed by double digits in the second half against Boston University before securing an overtime win, while Colgate also shook off a double-digit deficit against Bucknell.

The Lehigh Raiders, who went 9-9 in Patriot League play entered the conference tournament as the sixth seed, and they are just 40 minutes away from potentially securing an NCAA tournament bid against the Colgate Raiders, who entered as the top seed in the Patriot League tournament.

Colgate won't be a popular upset pick like the past season if it wins the conference tournament. The Raiders offense is one of head coach Matt Langel's worst during Colgate's reign over the Patriot League, ranking 213th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

It's been a tough offensive season as the Raiders went from the nation's best Effective Field Goal percentage last year to 61st this year. Colgate's most important development is that it went from a team that never turns it over to ranking 129th in Turnover Rate in college basketball. Guards have typically been a strength of Colgate's roster, but the Raiders only have one true ball-handler—Braeden Smith.

Smith is having an outstanding sophomore season at point guard. He is averaging 13 points, five rebounds and five assists and scored 22 huge points in the narrow win over Bucknell. The sophomore from Seattle will need another strong scoring performance against the Mountain Hawks for the Raiders to make the Big Dance.

A lack of shooting options is another significant issue for Colgate. Ryan Moffatt is the team's best shooter at 38% from deep, but not having a shooter in the backcourt like Tucker Richardson is noticeable.

The offensive struggles have forced Langel to focus on the defensive end for sustained success. The Raiders rank 110th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, limiting opponents to a 47% Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%). Teams don't score easily against Colgate's defense, and Lehigh struggled to crack 60 points in both prior meetings.

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Lehigh entered the Patriot League Tournament after winning five of the last seven regular-season games. The Mountain Hawks are getting hot right now, and they are 40 minutes away from an NCAA Tournament bid. Lehigh's last NCAA Tournament bid came in 2012 when CJ McCollum outdueled Jabari Parker and Duke.

Underdog teams need players to perform better than usual to win conference tournaments, and Lehigh freshman Cam Gillus did just that when he scored 30 points in Lehigh's comeback win on Saturday. Entering the game, Gillus averaged around six points per game.

Gillus, Tyler Whitney-Sidney and Keith Higgins are a formidable scoring trio. Whitney-Sidney leads the team in scoring with 15.2 points per game, while Higgins is second with 12.5 points. Higgins only played in one of the two games against Colgate, so he'll be another piece Langel needs to prep for.

Coach Brett Reed wants his teams to push the pace, so having guards capable of handling the ball is huge. All three of Lehigh's top scorers can comfortably push it in transition.

The Mountain Hawks' offensive success comes from defensive stops. They don't want a halfcourt game; they want to hold opponents to one shot. This has been a strength because of Lehigh's elite defensive rebounding percentage. Lehigh ranks 181st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but struggles against the 3-point shot as it is allowing 36% of shots from deep to fall.

Lehigh held Colgate to 25% shooting or worse in the other two meetings, so that variance might shift in the Raiders' direction. Colgate shoots 36% from 3 on decent volume, so I imagine that could turn in the third matchup.

Betting on Lehigh has proven profitable so far, clocking in at 19-10 against the spread. That's one of the better markers in the country, and Lehigh covered in both games against Colgate. I think we'll see more of the same in the third game, although Colgate should shoot it better this time around.

Coach Langel is fine without blowing teams out of the water. If Colgate isn't shooting it well, the Raiders probably won't crack 70. All it takes is keeping the game to just over two possessions for the cover in what should be a tense matchup.

C'mon Hawks.

Pick: Lehigh +7 (Play to +6.5)