The Louisville Cardinals take on the Baylor Bears in Fort Worth, TX. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Baylor prediction and college basketball picks for February 14, 2026.
Louisville vs Baylor Prediction
My Pick: Baylor +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
My Louisville vs Baylor best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs. Baylor Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Louisville vs Baylor spread: Louisville -6.5
- Louisville vs Baylor over/under: 163.5 points
- Louisville vs Baylor moneyline: Louisville -290, Baylor +235
Louisville vs Baylor College Basketball Betting Preview
Baylor Basketball
It's been another uneven season for Baylor, sitting at 13-11 overall and 3-9 in Big 12 play.
However, you have to feel decent about how Baylor is playing lately. The Bears were a total no-show against Cincy, which looked like it had almost quit on the season. Since then, Baylor played four straight really solid games, beating West Virginia and playing Colorado, Iowa State and BYU close.
Of course, it's a very, very small sample, but Baylor is 17th in Bart Torvik's rankings in those four games. The key to turning things around is on the defensive end, a typical issue for the Bears. They rank 107th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. In the wins over Colorado and West Virginia, the Bears held them both to below 1.00 points per possession.
Is that more about Baylor improving defensively, or is that just it playing two bad teams? Time will tell, but I'd guess a mix of both. In those four games, Baylor allowed teams to shoot 55.6% on 2s (268th) and 27% from deep (34th). That perimeter defense (perhaps some luck) will need to carry into this matchup.
Offensively, Baylor has some real weapons. Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou are both likely first-round NBA draft picks, and Yessoufou just scored 37 points in the BYU game.
Carr leads the team with 19 points per game while shooting 52% from the field and 41% from deep. That's the type of electric duo you need to compete against a better team like Louisville.
The Bears' interior will need to hold up in this matchup.
Scott Drew brought in James Nnaji, but he's been a total nothing. Caden Powell and Michael Rataj are the only two bigs for Baylor who really play, and the rotation only goes about six men deep.
Louisville Basketball
Louisville absolutely clobbered NC State in its last matchup. That game proved a few things for me. One is that the Cardinals still have top-10 upside when Mikel Brown Jr. is playing well. He won't score 45+ every game, but he has that ability, which very few players do.
Pat Kelsey got 76 points from Brown and Ryan Conwell in that win. Conwell snapped a very cold streak in that one, too.
When Louisville's offense is humming, there's a lot to like. Brown has been streaky, but he's plenty capable of exploding for 25+. Conwell is having an inefficient shooting season, but he can go off.
I'd call Isaac McKneely the X-factor. He's on the floor to do two things, space and shoot. And he shoots 39% from downtown. That trio could carry this Cardinals offense.
The Cardinals are going to look to let it fly from downtown. They attempt the most 3s out of anyone in the sport, and over 53% of their shots come from deep.
That could leave them in a tough spot if the shots aren't falling. Part of what comes from the floor spacing and threat of shooting is that Louisville is shooting 60% from inside the arc. It helps to have an elite lob threat and rim runner like Sananda Fru, who leads the country in shooting (77%).
Fru is also a major part of Louisville's defensive efforts. He's the catalyst for Louisville holding teams to 45% shooting on 2s — a top-15 mark nationally. The Cardinals also limit opponents to 26% offensive rebound rate, which helps their fast-paced offense get out in transition.
Louisville vs. Baylor Betting Analysis
The line is sitting at Louisville -6.5, and I think that's a little too much. Baylor isn't an awful team and is much more talented than the record indicates.
Plus, it's a good sell-high spot on Louisville after winning four straight games by eight-plus points. All it takes is an off shooting night for a team who shoots it more than anyone to give Baylor a window to compete.
Baylor will give up points, but Louisville might struggle to contain Yessoufou and Carr. I'm not sure who on Louisville's roster can contain the physical play of Yessoufou. Carr is skilled enough to score against anybody, too.
Give me the Bears here.
My Pick: Baylor +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
