College Basketball Odds, Pick for Louisville vs UNC

North Carolina has emerged as the favorite to win the ACC, for good reason. The Tar Heels have just three losses, all coming on neutral courts to strong teams. Carolina has yet to lose in conference and looks poised to continue that streak.

On Wednesday, the Tar Heels will welcome the Louisville Cardinals to the Dean Dome. Louisville may have dead cat bounced from last year's disaster season, but likely not enough to escape the cellar of the ACC.

Louisville is 6-10, with just one ACC win in five tries, and yet somehow, this season might be going better than Cardinal fans expected.

Louisville already surpassed last year's win total — nabbing just four all season during a dismal campaign — and needs just one more conference win to match last year as well. Now, it's pretty easy to clear the bar when the bar lives among the worst power-conference teams in recent college basketball history.

Having said that, there are brighter spots this season. Not bright enough for head coach Kenny Payne to keep his job, but at least enough of a shimmer to expect Louisville to be occasionally competitive down the stretch.

Louisville is 5-4 ATS as an underdog this season and 3-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.

How has Louisville managed to exceed its rock bottom expectations? A lot of credit goes to the arrival of Skyy Clark via the transfer portal. After a promising year at Illinois as a freshman, Clark made the odd choice to join the Cards, given the state of the program when he signed up.

He's delivered for the most part, aided by two players who remained from last year's roster and shown real improvement. Sophomore guard Mike James is on a three-game streak topping 20-plus points, including a career high 26 in the massive upset win over Miami.

He's complemented by Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, a big on the interior who went for 23 points and 10 rebounds last time out against NC State.

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Two years ago, North Carolina made a shocking run to the national final. Last season, with many of the same pieces in place, the Heels didn't even reach the Big Dance.

Sensing unfinished business, two of that team's biggest contributors — Armando Bacot and RJ Davis — chose to return to campus for one more season.

Davis' backcourt running mate Caleb Love chose instead to hit the transfer portal, in some way a blessing in disguise for Carolina. Love was an offensive black hole at times, shooting under 30% on a startling 244 attempts from downtown and posting a near 1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Love was replaced in the starting lineup by two power-conference veterans, Harrison Ingram from Stanford and Cormac Ryan from Notre Dame.

While Love had a high ceiling offensively, his erratic shot selection and shooting could bottom out and put Carolina in trouble. Ingram and Ryan are nearly the opposite. Neither does a ton to raise the Heels' ceiling, but both are such smart, tough players that they dramatically elevate North Carolina's floor.

Bacot and Davis do plenty on the ceiling side of things, not to mention the potential emergence of freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau. As he gets more and more comfortable handing the ball for the Heels, a lot more opportunities open up offensively for Carolina, especially for Davis.

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The Cardinals have only lost one game by a margin as big as this spread, though this line also marks the largest line in a Louisville game so far this season. The Tar Heels are the best team Louisville has faced and, as such, should simply outclass the Cardinals.

A victory should nearly never be in doubt here, so when just looking at this massive margin, a lot of it will come down to shooting luck.

In that regard, I tend to think Louisville might actually have a chance. North Carolina's last four opponents have combined to shoot, and I legitimately can't believe I'm typing this, 14% from outside the arc. Those were Pitt, Clemson and NC State on their home floors — plus Syracuse in Chapel Hill — combining to hit 12-of-86 from deep.

That simply can't continue.

Louisville has little shot to win here, but it can definitely ride a shooting night to a cover. Sharps were quick to pounce on this trend, with the line dipping more than a point quickly after opening.

I still like it at +21.5 or better.

Pick: Louisville +21.5

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