The Round of 64 delivered its usual chaos, with underdogs cashing tickets and a handful of close calls for top seeds.
Now comes the quick turnaround to Saturday’s Round of 32, where those results tend to carry over — whether it’s inflated perception from a blowout win or underlying trends that continue to show up year after year.
Here's my March Madness betting trends, stats and notes for Saturday's Round of 32 games.
Saint Louis vs Michigan
Saint Louis blew out Georgia as underdogs in the Round of 64, but that type of performance hasn’t translated well historically.
When underdogs score 75 or more in a Round of 64 win, they are just 32-46-1 ATS in the Round of 32 since 2005.
Michigan enters on the opposite end of the spectrum, failing to cover the spread in six straight games, with its last cover coming back in February.
Louisville vs. Michigan State
Michigan State has thrived in this exact spot under Tom Izzo.
As a favorite in the quick turnaround Round of 32, the Spartans are 11-1 straight up, with their only loss coming by two points in 2018.
TCU vs. Duke
This will be Jamie Dixon’s 31st NCAA Tournament game as a head coach, and he's rarely been a sizable underdog. Dixon has only closed +6 or higher once — a 2022 Round of 32 game against Arizona where TCU lost by five as 10-point dogs — and is 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) when catching three points or more.
Duke won by six in the Round of 64 as a No. 1 seed, and that could be a warning sign. Top-four seeds coming off a close win of six points or fewer are just 12-20-1 ATS in the Round of 32 since 2005.
Duke has also been a strong under team in the NCAA Tournament under Jon Scheyer, with nine of his 12 tournament games finishing under the total.
Texas A&M vs. Houston
Kelvin Sampson has consistently delivered early in the tournament, but he's struggled deeper into March.
Since 2005, he's 12-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and Round of 32 combined, but he's just 4-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later.
He's avoided major upsets, though, going 14-0 SU in his career as a tournament favorite of eight points or more.
Texas vs. Gonzaga
When Gonzaga is seeded in the top four, it's struggled to meet expectations at the window, going 1-7 ATS since the 2021-22 season and just 13-27-1 ATS dating back to the 2004-05 tournament.
Sean Miller has been dominant in this round, coaching nine Round of 32 games and going a perfect 9-0 ATS.
VCU vs. Illinois
VCU staged a massive comeback from 19 points down to beat North Carolina in the Round of 64, but those types of rallies haven’t carried over.
Over the past decade, teams that come back from deficits of more than 10 points are just 7-12 ATS in the Round of 32.
Brad Underwood, meanwhile, has been reliable in the favorite role, going 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the NCAA Tournament.
Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska
Nebraska has been dominant against non-conference opponents this season, going 12-0 SU and winning by an average of 18.4 points per game.
That includes four games where the Huskers were either underdogs or favored by fewer than five points.
Fred Hoiberg’s teams have also performed well historically in March, posting a 33-20-2 ATS record.
High Point vs. Arkansas
High Point enters the Round of 32 riding a 15-game winning streak and is 23-1 SU in its last 24 games.
The Panthers already pulled one upset as 10.5-point underdogs against Wisconsin in the Round of 64, and now find themselves as double-digit dogs again.
No team has won outright as a double-digit underdog in both the Round of 64 and Round of 32 since the tournament expanded in 1985.
