Happy March Madness!
Did everyone have a fun whirlwind opening slate of 16 NCAA Tournament games? Great, let's do it all again.
Below are some of my plays for Friday, plus a couple escalators and futures.
Santa Clara vs. Kentucky
The Broncos are back dancing for the first time in 1996. I don't love investing in the WCC, with non-Gonzaga teams being 7-19 straight-up this century, but Santa Clara has a pretty good-looking upset profile under Herb Sendek.
Santa Clara forces a lot of turnovers, takes a lot of triples, hits the glass well to create extra possessions and has a possible star in Allen Graves.
Kentucky has a pretty blah profile considering the talent on the roster, and Mark Pope may not be long for this squad. Truth be told, if you took the logos off the jerseys in this one, I'm not sure we'd think the right team is favored.
The first game of the day is usually close, so I'm taking Santa Clara +3.5, and let's put a portion of the bet on the +135 moneyline, too (Caesars).
Pick: Santa Clara +3.5
Akron vs. Texas Tech
This is everyone's favorite 5-versus-12 upset and usually that's a good signal to stay away. However, I'm all in on the Zips getting their first tournament win ever.
Akron's top five players are seniors and it's played in the last two tournaments, so it's now or never for this squad. The Zips are a fantastic offense and should score on a Tech defense that hasn't been as good as in recent seasons, and their edge on the offensive glass should make them even more efficient.
Texas Tech profiles as a dangerous underdog because of its 3-point volume, but that also means variance as a favorite.
The popular narrative is that the Red Raiders barely fell off after losing JT Toppin to injury, but that's nonsense — you don't lose a First Team All-American and not fall off. You just look like you didn't because the 3s all fell for a few games.
Now that stud point guard Christian Anderson is banged up with a groin injury too, the Red Raiders look vulnerable.
The MAC has been a great conference to back in this spot. In 28 games as a 12-to-14 seed, the MAC has nine upset wins and eight more losses by seven or less. That's a 61% chance of a close, dangerous game, and both of those scenarios cover this line.
I like Akron to keep it close all the way, and I'll play the escalator too: +270 moneyline at BetMGM. Let's sprinkle +2000 to make the Sweet 16 (DraftKings) too since Alabama also looks vulnerable in similar ways.
Pick: Akron +7.5
Hofstra vs. Alabama
This is the other side of that Akron/Tech sub-regional, and I'm wondering if we could get a 12-versus-13 matchup next.
Alabama wants to run and outscore you, but it just lost leading scorer Aden Holloway on the eve of the tourney. Bama's defense is pretty awful, specifically on the glass and Hofstra ranks top-40 in offensive rebounding, so that could mean extra possessions and chances to score.
That also helps slow the game down, something the Pride tend to do anyway with a bottom-50 pace. Hofstra is top 10 in the nation in effective field goal percentage too. Slow things down, hammer the boards for extra possessions, and hope the shots fall? That's the formula for an upset.
The CAA is 14-7-1 ATS (67%) in its last 22 games. If Hofstra can slow this game down, 11.5 points is a lot more valuable.
I like Akron better, but because of the matchup and weak sub-regional with both favorites missing top players, I'm playing both dogs. I'm looking at Hofstra +11.5 and a small escalator on the +550 moneyline and +2500 on a Sweet 16 berth (DraftKings).
If both 'dogs win in the first round, we'll already have a guaranteed winner for Sunday.
Pick: Hofstra +11.5
Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee
Look, I'm gonna keep this very simple: I don't think Miami (OH) is very good. I don't personally believe it deserved a tourney spot, and its win Wednesday night didn't change my mind on that.
Tennessee is the far better team, and there's no reason this should be close.
But Miami (OH) has been the story of the season, and it feels like destiny will at least want it to keep things close, right?
Nine of the last 16 MAC teams have either won outright or kept it to single digits (more than half of them), so the MAC is one of my favorite perennial underdogs in March.
Add that to the slew of awful Rick Barnes trends — 7-19 ATS since 2009, 12-19 ATS as a seed favorite the last two decades, both worst for any coach in Action Labs — and that's enough to provoke a spread bet from me no matter what I think about the RedHawks.
Pick: Miami (OH) +11.5
Northern Iowa vs. St. John's
I actually really like St. John's and think this team is underseeded with serious Final Four potential, but I also think it could go down in the first round if this matchup goes sideways.
The Johnnies want to play fast and dominate defensively, but Northern Iowa plays the third-slowest pace in the nation and might be just as good on the defensive end. If the Panthers can slow this game down to a crawl, suddenly every bucket will be at a premium, especially for two offenses that can really get stuck in the mud at times.
Nine of the last 12 Missouri Valley teams seeded eighth or worse have won at least one game in the tournament. This has become the best conference to bet on for underdogs every March.
UNI played eight games against top-100 opponents this season. The Panthers either won or lost by five or less in all but one of them. If they can keep the pace low, this should be close all the way.
I'm taking Northern Iowa to cover, and if it's really that close, we have to play the +456 moneyline, too (Kalshi).
Pick: Northern Iowa +9.5
Queens is dancing for the first time ever, but it has the exact wrong formula here. The Royals play super fast and bring the worst-ranked defense in the tournament, per KenPom. Plus, they'll go up against the new No. 1 offense in Purdue.
The Boilers' defense isn't that great either, so Queens may actually score and that could push this total up. So, rather than a Purdue cover, I'll just bet on it to push 100.
Meanwhile, Prairie View A&M won its play-in, but it's comfortably the worst team in the field, and the Panthers play a top-20 tempo and feature a subpar defense.
Florida plays fast too, so this one should see plenty of points, and the Gators will have no problems scoring.
Anyone up for a team total escalator?
Picks: Purdue & Florida Over Team Total 94.5
Missouri vs. Miami (FL)
Missouri was lucky to avoid the play-in and now gets to play right in St. Louis. It feels like that's buying a little value on the better team in Miami (FL).
Jai Lucas' squad is really good and peaking late in the season. It should dominate the glass in this matchup and find plenty of ways to score against a bad defense.
I'm just not sure Mizzou deserves to be here, and the Tigers haven't performed well historically in this spot at 4-12 SU as a 7-to-11 seed.
Miami is the better team, and the spread is low enough to make this worth a play as we wrap up the first round Friday night.
Pick: Miami (FL) -1.5
