The Round of 32 continues on Sunday with a mix of coaching edges, situational spots and historical trends that tend to show up year after year.
From elite ATS coaches to fatigue spots off overtime games, these matchups offer a wide range of angles to consider.
Here's my March Madness betting trends, stats and notes for Sunday's Round of 32 games.
Miami (FL) vs. Purdue
Matt Painter has been one of the most reliable coaches in the opening weekend of March Madness.
Between Southern Illinois and Purdue, he is 23-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and Round of 32 combined, the best mark of any head coach in the seeding era with at least 20 games.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State
Kentucky has struggled mightily early in games, going 9-26 ATS in the first half this season and just 24-47 ATS in the first half over the last two years. As an underdog, the Wildcats are 2-10 ATS in the first half this season.
They also enter a tough situational spot after going to overtime against Santa Clara. Since 2007, teams coming off an overtime game in the Round of 64 and facing an opponent that did not are just 2-16 SU in the Round of 32.
St. John's vs. Kansas
Rick Pitino has been dominant against the spread in tournament settings, going 38-14-1 ATS in NCAA and conference tournament games since the 2011-12 season. When playing on two days of rest or fewer, his teams are 22-4-1 ATS in that span.
Bill Self has gone the other direction recently, posting a 7-14 ATS record over the last seven NCAA Tournaments, the least profitable mark of any coach in that stretch. He also enters on a five-game ATS losing streak in the tournament, the longest of his career.
Tennessee vs. Virginia
Rick Barnes picked up a cover in the Round of 64, but that hasn’t typically carried over. He hasn’t covered in both the Round of 64 and Round of 32 in the same tournament since 2009.
When Barnes’ teams have dominated early, that has also been a warning sign. Since 2005, Texas and Tennessee teams under Barnes are 0-4 ATS in the Round of 32 after winning their opener by 20 points or more.
Iowa vs. Florida
Florida enters on a three-game ATS winning streak in the NCAA Tournament and hasn’t covered four straight games in the dance since the 2006-07 season.
Iowa has thrived in the underdog role at higher spreads, going 3-0 ATS this season when closing +6 or higher. The Hawkeyes lost all three of those games outright but kept each within seven points.
Utah State vs. Arizona
The Mountain West has struggled in this role, going just 1-17 SU as an underdog of seven points or more in the NCAA Tournament. The only win came in 2018 when Nevada upset Cincinnati in the Round of 32.
Utah State has also failed to break through as a big underdog, going 0-19 SU as a double-digit dog since 2005.
Tommy Lloyd has been dominant early in the tournament, going 7-1 SU in the Round of 64 and Round of 32, including a perfect 3-0 SU mark in the Round of 32.
UCLA vs. UConn
Quick turnarounds have been where Dan Hurley’s teams thrive. In the Round of 32, Elite Eight and National Championship, Hurley is 8-1 ATS overall and 7-0 ATS at UConn, covering by 11.8 points per game.
UConn has also handled Big Ten competition with ease, going 5-0 SU and ATS against the conference since the start of the 2022 season.
Texas Tech vs. Alabama
Nate Oats has been particularly strong in high-total environments, going 8-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games with totals of 155 or higher, compared to 4-7 ATS when totals are lower.
He has also excelled on short rest, which defines the Round of 32. Across his time at Alabama and Buffalo, Oats is 24-13-1 ATS on two days of rest or fewer, including 13-6 ATS in NCAA and conference tournament games.
