The March Madness action continues Friday with 16 more games on tap in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
That means we're back for our Action Network college basketball best bets, and our proprietary model will help focus in and find edges for those picks.
With that in mind, here are our March Madness picks and two total NCAA Tournament bets for Friday's first-round games.
You can find all of our picks daily in the free Action Network app:
Northern Iowa vs St. John's Pick
St. John’s plays with pace and pressure, averaging 81.6 points per game and ranking 68th nationally in tempo, per KenPom.
Their offense is powered by Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 PPG), along with a supporting cast that has helped the Red Storm score 75-plus points in four of their last five games.
Northern Iowa, meanwhile, brings elite defensive numbers, ranking first in the country in scoring defense (61.3 PPG) and fifth in defensive efficiency.
However, those stats are heavily tied to the Panthers' slow style. They rank 359th in pace and prefer to grind games down.
When forced to play faster, that defense can crack. A good example came in late February, when they gave up 91 points to Belmont (ranked 94th nationally in tempo) in an uptempo matchup.
That’s where St. John’s has the edge. Its athleticism and depth should push the pace and pull Northern Iowa out of its comfort zone.
If that happens — and especially if St. John’s continues to get to the line (18.8 made free throws per game) — this game has a strong chance to go over 131.5.
Pick: Over 131.5
Queens vs Purdue Pick
Queens comes in with a strong offense, averaging 84.9 points per game, but it has struggled when facing elite competition.
In lopsided losses to defensive-minded teams like Virginia (55 points) and Villanova (51 points), its scoring dropped well below its usual output.
When Purdue is a heavy favorite (20 points or more), it tends to win with defense and control rather than running up the score.
In early-season matchups against similar stylistic teams like Evansville and Texas Tech, the Boilermakers held opponents to just 53.5 points per game, locking things down once they built a comfortable lead.
Purdue has the defensive ability to create a similar result. It ranks 36th in defensive efficiency and allows just 70.1 points per game.
Just as important is tempo.
The Boilermakers play at one of the slowest paces in the country (338th), preferring a half-court style that limits possessions.
That approach can take Queens out of its rhythm, especially since the Royals rely heavily on 3-point shooting and transition offense.
If Purdue controls the glass — where it ranks second nationally in defensive rebounding — and limits second chances, it’s hard to see this game turning into a high-scoring affair.
In a tournament setting, where shooting often dips on a neutral floor, the total is more likely to stay under than push into the mid-160s.
Pick: Under 163.5
