Maui Invitational Odds, Picks for Tuesday

Day two of the Maui Invitational features two juicy matchups — No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Purdue and No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Marquette.

Our staff has Maui Invitational odds and picks, including how to bet all four games from Honolulu on Tuesday, November 21.

Maui Invitational Picks — Tuesday, Nov. 21

By Sean Paul

We’re onto the consolidation side of the Maui Invitational bracket. Luckily, this field is arguably the most stacked Feast Week field in the last decade.

For this one, the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Syracuse Orange will hope to avoid falling to 0-2 in Maui.

Syracuse has gotten tested in each of its four games. Even against lower-conference foes — like Canisius and New Hampshire — the Orange failed to cover the spread.

On the season, Cuse is 0-4 ATS, with an overall record of 2-2. However, the Orange were covering the spread against Tennessee for the entire game until the final four minutes. While there's no moral victories in betting, Syracuse had the edge for a majority of the game until poor shot selection put it out of hand.

The idea of Syracuse’s upside in the backcourt is more of a dream than reality. While Judah Mintz looks like one of college basketball’s top guards, JJ Starling’s transition to New York hasn’t come easily. Mintz is averaging 23 points and five assists per contest, but Starling’s lack of shooting isn’t making him the perfect sidekick to Mintz.

Right now, Syracuse sits at 117th in KenPom, which puts it between Santa Clara and Northern Iowa. I believe Syracuse isn't fairly valued by KenPom, which undervalues it in the betting market.

As of now, Cuse hasn't given the analytics or market a reason to believe otherwise. That's why you have to look deeper at what could become of this Orange team long-term.

Syracuse's ceiling is pretty high. It just needs the guards to play like two talents who carry serious NBA chances, and anything can happen.

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The Bulldogs lost their top shooter — Steele Venters — to an ACL injury before the season, and his presence was needed against Purdue. Gonzaga went a shockingly poor 6-of-32 from downtown, good for just 18%.

Starting guards Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard shot a combined 10-for-31 from the floor. That’s just not good enough for Gonzaga to win games while Graham Ike is looking to establish himself as the top post option in life after Drew Timme.

Ike scored 14 points against Purdue, but he'll need to produce more than that moving forward. After all, Ike was the Mountain West Preseason Player of the Year in 2022-23.

Another major Gonzaga concern is depth. One of the calling cards of Gonzaga teams over the years has been a deep roster; sometimes its bench could go 11 or 12 players deep. But injury issues and a lack of recruiting in the portal is currently limiting Gonzaga’s roster to nine healthy players.

When it comes to it, who will Mark Few rely on to make the plays when it matters? That's my question surrounding this Gonzaga team.

Nembhard benefits from other players around him before actually imposing his own scoring will. Ultimately, I think the best way for Gonzaga to beat Syracuse is bringing 7-foot-4 center Naheem McLeod out to the perimeter and using Braden Huff and Ben Gregg to exploit his lacking foot speed.

Tuesday's game provides a great chance for Coach Few to figure out the offensive pecking order against an underwhelming defense.

Considering Syracuse closed as 12.5-point underdogs to Tennessee, the point spread implies that Gonzaga and Tennessee are comparable teams.

I simply don’t think that's the case right now.

At worst, Tennessee is arguably the best defensive team in America with immense offensive upside. What’s the appeal on Gonzaga right now — besides Nembhard turning into a reliable scorer?

I expect the Zags to beat Syracuse, don’t get it twisted. But 12.5 points is too lofty in this spot.

I'm fading Gonzaga as much as I'm backing Syracuse.

Pick: Syracuse +12.5

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By Greg Waddell

When Chaminade takes on UCLA, it will be looking for its first win in the Maui Invitational since 2017, when the Silverswords steamrolled Cal, 96-72. The home team at this event won’t feel as “at home” away from the Lahaina Civic Center, but it still has a great opportunity to make some memories by beating the Bruins.

The Silverswords won’t be as overmatched as they were against Kansas, but there's still a massive size difference coming into this game. The Bruins boast one of the larger rosters in all of college basketball, headlined by sophomore center Adem Bona and true freshman Aday Mara.

Mick Cronin’s squad appears near-elite defensively, and it could be suffocating for Chaminade to handle.

Never say never, but it would be shocking to see this one come down to the wire.

Taking away the 3-point line is one of UCLA’s largest strengths in these early-season games. Coming into Maui, UCLA ranked 27th in the country in 3-point percentage defense, holding its opponents to just 24% shooting from deep.

That's bad news for a Chaminade team that needs to hit shots from deep.

The Bruins are extremely young, which makes them prone to a wide range of outcomes. We simply haven't seen these players in many high-stakes situations.

They have all the talent in the world — as Mara projects as a lottery pick — but with so much youth, it wouldn't be a surprise to see UCLA stumble in a game you wouldn’t expect to cause it any problems on paper.

UCLA opened as favorites of 30+ points in games against both Lafayette and LIU earlier this season, before failing to cover by significant margins and only winning those games by 18 and 20 points, respectively.

Both of those teams are still significantly tougher opponents than Chaminade, but it's a data point worth noting on how these Bruins fare against lesser competition.

With that said, they looked up for the challenge against a great Marquette team on Monday.

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Before the loss to Kansas, Chaminade was not off to its best start to the season. The Silverswords opened with a five-point loss to Alaska Anchorage, then secured a win over Alaska before losing their second game in three contests to Hawaii Hilo in overtime.

Chaminade has two sharpshooters who are capable of getting hot from outside. Its leading scorer is Isaac Amaral-Artharee and his running mate is Jamir Thomas, both of whom average over 16 points per game and shoot over 40% from 3.

Don’t expect much from Chaminade as far as physicality goes — it simply doesn't have the size or athleticism to keep up with many Division-I teams when it comes to defense and rebounding. But if the shots are falling, the Silverswords can certainly hang around in a game longer than you might expect.

It would take a miracle for Chaminade to make this game competitive.

While UCLA’s youth is a concern against more talented teams, there should be no concerns that Mara and Bona can have their way with the Chaminade bigs from start to finish in this one.

Take UCLA to cover.

Pick: UCLA -28.5

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By Greg Waddell

Purdue and Tennessee are set to square off in the Maui Invitational semifinals. This should be one of the most exciting games of the early season, as both teams completed come-from-behind victories in the first round.

Both teams have a fair case to make for the title of "best team in college basketball," so let's take a closer look.

Tennessee comes into this game the same way most Rick Barnes teams enter games … with an elite defense. The Volunteers are the top-ranked defense in the country, according to KenPom.

They are loaded with quick, feisty guards who pressure in the full court. Tennessee also has athletic bigs that are capable of dominating the boards. Simply put, the Volunteers make life extremely difficult on opposing offenses.

But now they've added Dalton Knecht, the most dynamic scorer Barnes has had in quite some time. Knecht can score at all three levels and is capable of taking over a game every time he steps on the floor. Purdue has nobody who matches up with Knecht.

While Purdue will certainly have issues with Knecht, Tennessee will have even more issues trying to match up with Zach Edey. That's not to say Tennessee doesn't have a great defense inside, it's just that Edey is a mismatch for even the best defense in college basketball.

Gonzaga entered the Purdue game with the intent of letting Edey go one-on-one with its bigs. Well, Edey finished with 25 points and nine rebounds and looked very much like the best player in the country. He only made 50% of his shots from the floor and, as crazy as it is to say, he left some points out there, as he missed shots he normally makes.

On the defensive end, Purdue will have to answer for Knecht. The Boilers' starting wings are small — Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones aren't physically capable of making life tough on Knecht.

Purdue could try Ethan Morton or freshman Myles Colvin, but Knecht is a big assignment and Purdue doesn't have a clear answer.

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There's no doubt this will be one of the best games of the season, and both coaches will need to bring their A-game.

In the end, Edey is the bigger mismatch than a possibly hobbled Knecht. Matt Painter has won 29 consecutive regular season non-conference games at Purdue, and I like that trend to continue.

Pick: Purdue -2

By Greg Waddell

It's so early in the college basketball season, but not too early for a matchup between top-four teams in the sport. Marquette and Kansas both have Final Four dreams, but first, they have a chance to advance to the championship of the Maui Invitational.

Kansas drew the easy draw, beating Chaminade comfortably in the opening round. Marquette had to face UCLA, and earned its date with the Jayhawks as a result of a win in an incredible back-and-forth game.

Both teams enter this game undefeated with a real path to being crowned the No. 1 team in the polls if they can cut down the nets in Maui.

There's one “mutual opponent” on the schedule that both these teams have played — the Illinois Fighting Illini. Kansas played the Illini in a charity exhibition, but the game was televised, and it appeared that Bill Self played his top rotation as normal in an attempt to win.

Ultimately, they lost that game in Champaign. Then weeks later, Marquette made the same trip and emerged victorious with a seven-point victory.

It certainly is not the most meaningful result for this contest, but it's a data point that Marquette won its Illinois matchup and Kansas did not.

This will be a highly entertaining, competitive contest regardless.

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For Kansas, it all starts inside with Hunter Dickinson. The big man who began his career at Michigan has been the best player on the floor for Kansas every time he's stepped on the court.

Dickinson gives Self the more dangerous post presence that he's had in his entire career. Dickinson can score 30 any given night, pass to open shooters and step out and hit 3s himself. He pairs extremely well with Dajuan Harris Jr. and the blossoming Kevin McCullar Jr. (who notched a triple-double yesterday).

With those three complimenting each other nicely, Kansas ranks in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. The only real concern is shooting, but coming into Maui, Kansas was remarkably ranked third in the country, making 43% of its shots from outside.

This matchup is a fascinating one, as the Golden Eagles are loaded with experience and toughness. Tyler Kolek captains them in the backcourt, and he has a strong argument for being the best point guard in all of college basketball.

Last year’s Golden Eagles won the Big East regular season and tournament championships. They know how to win, and they returned most of their key names, minus one big star in the frontcourt.

O-Max Prosper is gone, leaving Oso Ighodaro and Ben Gold as the answers down low. The early returns are okay, but their block percentage as a team has dropped all the way down to 289th in the country.

This game could come down to whether or not Marquette can contain Hunter Dickinson.

It's easier said than done, but Marquette stands a good chance in this game with a defense that ranks inside the top 20 in the country.

The Golden Eagles are a bit deeper and more balanced than Kansas, and in their second game in two days, we'll back the team with Kolek.

Pick: Marquette +4.5