The Memphis Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, Mississippi. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Mississippi State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Memphis vs. Mississippi State prediction and college basketball picks for December 20, 2025.
Memphis vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Mississippi State -3.5 or Better
My Memphis vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Memphis vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 150.5 -112 / -108 | +154 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 150.5 -112 / -108 | -185 |
- Memphis vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -3.5
- Memphis vs Mississippi State over/under: 150.5 points
- Memphis vs Mississippi State moneyline: Memphis +154, Mississippi State -185
Memphis vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
If you’ve been looking for the right time to back Mississippi State, this is it. With Josh Hubbard healthy again, the team looks different on both offense and defense.
Memphis comes into this game with weaknesses that match up with Mississippi State’s strengths, and the stats support it.
Let’s start with the Memphis offense, since that’s usually how the Tigers try to beat teams: playing fast, using their athleticism, crashing the boards and creating chaos.
But the numbers tell a different story.
Memphis has an effective field goal percentage of 47.4%, which is low for such a fast-paced team. The Tigers also turn the ball over 18.7% of the time, which plays right into the Bulldogs' hands.
Memphis is usually great at offensive rebounding, grabbing 36.5% of its misses, but that edge is smaller here because Mississippi State is tall and physical, and rarely allows easy second chances.
The Tigers also struggle with shooting, which the Bulldogs can exploit.
Memphis is near the bottom of the country in 3-point shooting (30.9%), and it's not much better inside the arc (47.8%). Meanwhile, Mississippi State allows just a 48.6% effective field goal percentage on defense.
This matchup could easily lead to Memphis scoring droughts. Mississippi State’s offense gets a major boost with Hubbard back, and not just because of his scoring, but because of spacing and tempo control.
The offense was holding steady while he was out, but now that he's back the Bulldogs' offense is on an entire new level.
Memphis plays aggressive defense, but it also fouls a lot. The Tigers allow a 43.3% free-throw rate (318th), which is very high and can make a big difference on the road. Mississippi State usually struggles to get to the line, but Hubbard changes how teams defend it and should help increase that number.
Memphis also has a weak defensive rebounding rate, so Mississippi State should get extra chances, even though it's not the best rebounding team.
But the biggest difference? Memphis wants teams to play fast and make mistakes, while Mississippi State prefers a steady pace with good shot selection.
With Hubbard back, he's the one who stirs the drink. He can beat you off the dribble, create mismatches and allow the Bulldogs to create a lot more open looks.
Mississippi State also does better in shot-quality stats. Its 3-point and 2-point percentage are both higher than Memphis’ defensive numbers. The Bulldogs don’t need free throws or a fast pace to score.
Memphis is always a risky team to bet on when it's on the road, but against a defense designed to stop its weaknesses and an offense with its star player back, this matchup clearly favors Mississippi State.
I've always been down on Penny Hardaway as a coach, and the Tigers don't have the talent this season to combat their sloppy play.
My Pick: Mississippi State -3.5 or Better
