Miami vs Clemson Odds & Pick: Tall Task Ahead for Canes

The Atlantic Coast Conference used to be the premier league in men's college basketball. However, times have changed and just four ACC teams are projected to play in the NCAA Tournament.

The meaty middle of the standings are full of programs with postseason expectations cannibalizing each other into mediocrity. That group includes the Miami Hurricanes, who are trying to re-create the magic that led them to the Final Four last season, but have lost three of four and find themselves well outside the bubble.

Here's Miami vs. Clemson odds and a pick.

Four ACC teams — Duke, North Carolina, Clemson and Virginia, are projected to play in the NCAA Tournament and Wake Forest is on the bubble.

This season, Miami is just 1-3 against those five teams — though that lone victory came on January 3, against the Clemson Tigers. In that game, Clemson led by as many as eight points after halftime before the Hurricanes released a scoring barrage. Miami scored 60 points in the second half of that game and dominated play both in the paint and around the rim.

In theory, that's where Miami should thrive. Norchad Omier is an elite big man and both Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar are great drivers and finishers. The Hurricanes have the 17th-best field goal percentage at the rim in the nation, per Hoop-Math, but are enamored with jump shots. Miami ranks 283rd nationally in percentage of looks at the rim.

That's a major concern, especially since Miami's defense allows the highest 3-point rate and the most attempts and makes from long range in the ACC. Trading less than ideal looks on one end of the floor for 3s, no matter how open those 3s are, is a recipe for eventual disaster.

What started as a promising season has quickly gone south for Clemson. The Tigers thankfully did enough that it would take a full-on collapse to find themselves on or outside the NCAA Tournament bubble, but the direction of this team shifted.

After an 11-1 start, Clemson has dropped six of 10 games in a watered down ACC. Filter Bart Torvik's T-Rank model based on dates and the Tigers were the 15th-best team in college hoops prior to New Year's Day. Since then, Clemson ranks as the 57th-best team in the nation.

The Tigers showed a real sign of life recently, beating North Carolina on the road, yet that was Clemson's first win against a team projected to be in the NCAA Tournament since December 9.

There's hope that some of the issues have come via bad shooting luck. In their first 12 games, the Tigers nearly nailed 40% of their 3s. In their next nine outings, a 3-6 stretch against ACC opponents, Clemson made only 28.9% of its shots from beyond the arc. A lot of that comes from All-ACC player PJ Hall, who has made just 22% of his 3s in his past 11 games, while shooting five long balls per game.

A player of his importance simply can't be that ineffective and inefficient. He's taking 15.5 shots per game to score 19.2 points and also tallied more turnovers than assists in that period.

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I've spent a lot of this season waiting for the Miami Hurricanes to wake up and return to the form that led them to the Final Four last season. At some point, we all need to realize why that isn't going to happen.

Last year's Hurricanes finished the season 99th in defensive efficiency, similar to this year's ranking of 101st. Offensively, however, last year's Miami team was led by Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller and ranked sixth in the nation on that end of the floor. With those players gone and no true heir apparent replacing the playmaking on the perimeter, Miami ranks 61st offensively.

Clemson should get plenty of open shots against a Miami defense that always seems one step slow and the Tigers' shooting regression should be ready to kick in and spark a win.

Pick: Clemson -7.5