NCAAB Odds, Pick for Miami vs Wake Forest

The top of the ACC is always going to center around Duke and North Carolina, but this season there are plenty of off-brand competitors ready to challenge.

Both the Miami Hurricanes and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are hungry to remain near the top of the conference standings, with a puncher's chance to knock off the blue bloods later this spring. To keep pace, the meeting of the Canes and Demon Deacons on Saturday in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, becomes an incredibly important game.

Last season, Miami made the Final Four as a 5-seed. By the time March rolled around, this was a team built for postseason play that looked like one of the best in the nation.

Right around the holidays, however, they looked much like the current Hurricanes. Miami lost four of seven games early in ACC play last season, all on the road but mostly against teams it should have beaten. On this date last year, the Hurricanes had two losses on the year and were ranked in the 40s by KenPom, with a really strong offense and a less reliable defense.

Fast forward a year and surprise, surprise, Miami has two losses, is ranked in the 40s by KenPom, with a really strong offense and a less reliable defense.

The major differences, however, come at the top of the roster. This team should miss Isaiah Wong, a capable go-to-guy with the ball in his hands. The Canes have filled that hole in the aggregate. Norchad Omier is scoring more this season, with added shooting range. Matthew Cleveland, a transfer from Florida State, is posting 15 points per game. Wooga Poplar has emerged from the background of last year's team to become a real weapon this season.

The questions still come defensively. Miami is elite at avoiding needless fouls, ranking second in free-throw rate allowed. But when you're also allowing 53.4% shooting inside the arc (284th nationally) and over 60% shooting at the rim, maybe you should be a little more aggressive. In Miami's two losses, the Hurricanes allowed 90 points to Colorado and 95 to Kentucky, neither of which was the result of a 3-point avalanche. When Miami's defense goes soft, the other team looks like its taking layups in warm-ups for stretches of the game.

I spent a portion of my preview of last week's Wake Forest-Boston College game praising Steve Forbes for the job he's done with the Demon Deacons, suggesting he be included on any short list for best coach in the country. His team backed that up, winning on the road at Boston College (a tougher feat this year than in most) and continuing what is now an eight-game winning streak.

Forbes has masterfully built a roster out of homegrown talent, both veteran and new, in conjunction with some really sharp work in the transfer portal. The most important piece has been Hunter Sallis, a former five-star recruit who never lived up to that billing at his first stop with Gonzaga. Sallis has looked more aggressive and effective than he ever did with the Bulldogs, with a real chance to be a first-team All-ACC performer.

Sallis is one of four Demon Deacons posting at least 14.5 points per game, making for a balanced attack that is near impossible to handle in a scouting report. If you sell out to stop Sallis, Central Michigan transfer Kevin Miller is ready to attack and score at every level. Commit to stopping each of them and you're likely leaving too much breathing room for British sharpshooter Cameron Hildreth, who hits at a 46% clip from deep. Overplay the perimeter entirely and Wake Forest big man Andrew Carr is going to get buckets on the block. Or you'll see another Gonzaga transfer, Efton Reid III, rolling to the basket as a lob threat.

Wake Forest boasts a really well-constructed roster, with Forbes turning the screws to make one of the country's most efficient offenses. If you're going to beat the Demon Deacons, you'll need to exploit a defense that has been fine, but unreliable.

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Given these two teams' profiles, you can expect a ton of points in this game. The total accurately reflects that expectation, so I think we're better off leaning towards a side in this one.

For me, it's a simple pick. I expect Wake Forest to hang around the top few teams in the ACC standings all season long. For it to do so, this is a must-win. I'm ready to put my trust in Forbes, who is sure to find the holes in this Miami defense.

In his time at Wake Forest, Forbes is 28-15-1 ATS at home (.651), and now he's got his best team yet. Don't overthink it — trust the Demon Deacons.

Pick: Wake Forest -5 or Better

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