The Michigan Wolverines take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -118. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction and college basketball picks for January 30, 2026.
Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Under 145.5 (Play to 143)
My Michigan vs Michigan State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
- Michigan vs Michigan State spread: Michigan -1.5
- Michigan vs Michigan State over/under: 145.5 points
- Michigan vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan -118, Michigan State -102
Michigan vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Michigan went from being a world-beater that covered spreads with ease to failing to cover the number in seven consecutive games dating back to January 6.
What's changed for the Wolverines? Their offensive question marks heading into the year have turned into a real issue. They're turning the ball over 18% of the time and shooting 29% from deep during that stretdch.
In the previous 13 games, Michigan shot 36% from 3-point range and turned the ball over at a 16% clip. So, what is the real Michigan? That's a question we need to find the answer to in the long term, but it feels closer to the current version.
That's not to call this iteration of Michigan "bad." It still is 6-1 with a handful of double-digit wins.
The Wolverines have maintained a 6-1 record in that span due to their elite defense, which is second in KenPom's defensive efficiency. They also have 2-point dominance on both ends (shooting 64% on 2s and holding teams to 41% shooting from that range).
Michigan shoots 3s on 43% of its field goal attempts, so it'll be tough to determine its upside without knowing how good of a shooting team it is. Elliot Cadeau (41%) is the only player shooting above 36% from deep, and his track record isn't that of an elite as a marksman.
You have to be able to shoot to crack this Michigan defense. Teams who want to pound the paint tend to have a tough time scoring on the trio of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg.
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State had the clearest "lookahead" spot against a bad Rutgers team and almost lost. The Spartans pulled out the win, but I'm sure Tom Izzo had some colorful words to share after they allowed Rutgers to score 1.10 PPP.
That was an uncharacteristic showing for the Spartans, who boast the No. 1 defense in America, per KenPom. They limit teams to 46% shooting on 2s and 30% from deep, so it felt like Rutgers just got hot for a game.
In its seven prior games, Michigan State hadn't allowed more than 70 points or more than 1.00 PPP. So, I'll side with the Spartans' defense staying as the best in the country until further notice.
Offensively, Michigan State has some warts. It ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency and doesn't have much in the way of shooting. Percentage-wise, 36% from 3 is good, but it's on low volume with two trustworthy shooters (Jaxon Kohler and Kur Teng).
Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears Jr. hit below 30% from deep, and Carson Cooper isn't a shooter at the five.
That's not to besmirch the name of Fears, though. He's a top-10 player in America, per KenPom, and is the heart and soul of this Spartans team. He averages 14 points and 8.9 assists per game, including scoring 17+ points in four of his last five games.
He's done an excellent job becoming a reliable driver who can finish through contact.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
This has the feel of a lower-scoring showdown. Michigan State is at home and should control the tempo a bit. It has to limit turnovers, but Izzo knows Michigan is an up-tempo team. That should mean he'll lean into the slow pace of play more than usual, and they're 277th in adjusted tempo anyway.
Neither team is a good shooting team on paper, as I said. This game should be dictated on the interior.
The Spartans are in the top six in offensive and defensive rebounding rate, which should offset some of the Wolverines' typical rebounding dominance.
By crashing the offensive glass, Michigan State can limit Michigan in transition more.
I'll call a game in the high 60s here. Cracking the 70s will be tough for either team.
My Pick: Under 145.5 (Play to 143)
