NC State vs Purdue Pick & Prediction: Trust Edey & Co.

NC State takes on Purdue on Saturday, April 6, at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS. Here's Final Four odds and a pick for NC State vs Purdue.

The Final Four is finally here in bright and sunny Phoenix, Arizona, where the Purdue Boilermakers look to end the NC State Wolfpack's miraculous run.

The Pack haven't met their match yet, but is Purdue a different story?

I don't think anyone envisioned NC State making this run; at least Vegas didn't see it. The Pack were underdogs of 4.5 points in three of four NCAA Tournament games, including seven points against Duke and Marquette.

Kevin Keatts' squad overcame the odds and now finds itself just 40 minutes away from a chance to win the National Championship.

DJ Burns Jr. is America's most beloved player right now, and his 29-point performance against Duke only added to his outstanding March run. The Boilermakers' defense will force him to shoot mid-range jumpers.

With Burns having fewer chances, other players — like DJ Horne, Mohamed Diarra and Casey Morsell — providing some scoring punch will make a difference. Horne is fresh off a 20-point outing in the win over Duke and dropped 19 in the win over Marquette.

On defense, the Pack benefitted from some timely missed jumpers from Marquette and Duke. The Golden Eagles went a shockingly bad 4-for-31 from 3, while Duke shot around 25% from beyond the arc.

I hate to play the regression game, but limiting teams to around 22% from 3 is totally unsustainable.

Ready to get in on the NC State betting action in North Carolina? You can now sign up for NC sports betting, as the state went live with legal betting on March 11.

Edey is the best player in the sport, and it's not close. If you didn't think so before, his 40-point, 16-rebound outburst against Tennessee in the Elite Eight should sway your view.

There's no stopping him; you can only hope to contain him. I mean, just seeing the way Edey dominates opponents is a sight to behold.

NC State will have its hands full, as Diarra and Burns are both six-plus inches shorter than Edey. Nobody has matched Edey all season, but the Pack could have a tougher time slowing him than most teams.

Some would assume Edey's defense halts Purdue's defensive numbers, but that's been far from the case. The Boilermakers' defense still ranks 17th in efficiency and holds opponents to 47% shooting from 2-point range and 31% shooting from 3.

The best plan for attacking Purdue is hitting a quick mid-range jumper when Edey sits in drop coverage.

Purdue's potential path to covering the spread features a steady diet of shooters benefitting from Edey's dominance. Teams will gladly leave Lance Jones or Mason Gillis lightly contested to throw another body at the 7-foot-4 phenom.

Jones averages 11.8 points per game this year and fell below his average in three of four tournament games. Matt Painter can live with Jones' scoring being light if he provides locking defense on Horne.

I didn't even name the other two players contributing to Purdue's elite 3-point shooting prowess (40.8%.) Sophomore guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith shoot over 43% from downtown, which stretches defenses away from fully packing the interior.

I know I faded the Boilermakers in the past two games, but betting is all about transparency. I thought both of the Pack's past two opponents would shoot it better than they ended up shooting it.

So, now it's time to see the shots falling against NC State's defense like Alabama did against Clemson.

Plus, NC State only goes about seven players deep, which is a problem if you get into foul trouble. The talent gap dips dramatically once you get past Ben Middlebrooks and Jayden Taylor.

Edey's propensity for drawing fouls puts constant pressure on defenses, changing the game's tenor. I'm not hopping on the Edey-being-a-foul-merchant bandwagon — quite the contrary, I just think it's difficult to avoid fouling such an imposing force.

The Pack could run out of bodies here.

Pick: Purdue -9.5