NCAA Long Shots: 5 Sleepers that Could Pull a Shocking First-Round Upset

The beauty of March Madness is that every team in every conference gets a chance.

That means every single team in the nation can still theoretically win a national championship at the start of March, no matter how little or how much a long shot. The journey begins with a single first-round step, and for many teams, just getting that one win means everything.

Teams seeded 13 and lower are given virtually no chance of winning, but at least one of those teams wins a game nearly every year. Last March, there were three: 13-seed Furman, 15-seed Princeton and 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson. The previous tournament saw 15-seed St. Peter's win in the first round, and 2021 saw a record four teams seeded 13 or lower pull off that first-round upset.

In fact, every NCAA tournament since 2007 has seen at least one first-round win by a team seeded 13 or worse with an average of two upset wins per tournament, with the lone exception being 2017.

Not every season is equal, though. We'll always go bargain hunting in March, but the truth is that many of the lower conferences already saw big upsets that knocked out the top teams in each conference, leaving a much weaker 15- and 16-seed crop than usual.

That could make this a more top-heavy tournament than usual, especially with a pretty proven top 12-to-15 teams, but history says we can still expect one or two teams seeded 13 or lower to pull off that shocking first-round upset.

History suggests it will be one of these five teams that are 13-seeds or worse. These squads have a great chance to compete, cover and maybe even steal a win outright.

Akron (MAC champion)

The MAC is annually one of the best conferences to back early in the NCAA Tournament. Nine of the last 14 MAC teams to go dancing have either won their first game or at least kept it to single digits. In fact, in 26 games as a 12-, 13- or 14-seed, the MAC has tallied nine upset wins along with eight losses by seven or fewer points, meaning at least a 65% chance of a close, competitive, dangerous game.

Akron is not responsible for any of those wins at 0-5 in the modern tourney (oh what might have been had LeBron James opted for a few college years at home!), but the 13-seed Zips did come within four points of upsetting UCLA in 2022, and this team believes it can finish the job.

John Groce has four previous March Madness wins, and three of them were responsible for some of those positive MAC stats. Groce sputtered at Illinois but helped Ohio win as a 14-seed MAC team in 2010, then he coached 13-seed Ohio to the Sweet 16 two years later.

A coach with that sort of history is positioned well to pull another big upset, and Akron plays relatively slow (always helpful limiting possessions against a better opponent) and has a top-10 defense. The Zips played a quality nonconference schedule by winning at South Dakota St. with close losses to Utah State and UNLV. You may recognize Ali Ali, who started at Akron, transferred to Butler and is now back in Akron.

It took a terrible fouling gaffe by Kent State in the MAC championship game for Akron to get here, but history tells us these MAC teams have a knack for hanging around in March.

Charleston (CAA champion)

The Colonial (now the Coastal Athletic Association) used to be a reliable source of upsets, but the conference is winless in the last 10 years now that top teams like VCU and George Mason have left for greener pastures. Even so, the CAA is 11-5-1 ATS since 2011. Charleston repped the CAA last spring and missed the cover by half a point but lost by just six against San Diego State, who ended up playing for the national championship.

The CAA has proven it can hang, and Charleston is surely hungry after last year's close call.

The Cougars have only ever won once in the modern tourney and have only even made the NCAA Tournament twice this century. They boast a top-60 KenPom offense and play relatively fast, but it's a weaker team overall than last year's squad with a much worse defense.

Still, last year's team felt a year too early, and the Cougars survived an overtime game to earn their way back to the dance. Charleston beat St. Joesph's and won at Kent State, so this team has been tested some, and coach Pat Kelsey will coach in the tournament for the fourth time.

Recent CAA history says Charleston has a good chance of hanging around and covering. Can the Cougars finish the job this time?

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Colgate (Patriot League champion)

You probably remember a couple big Patriot League upsets — 15-seed Lehigh over Duke in 2012 and 14-seed Bucknell over Kansas in 2005 — but the conference has only one other win in the tourney, sitting at an awful 3-30 lifetime record.

That's not great news, but the last six NCAA Tournaments have seen closer calls for the Patriot League, with losses by four, six, seven and seven points.

Colgate was responsible for one of those losses but was also blown out twice, and this is the Raiders' fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth. They've never won a game in the modern tourney at 0-6.

The Raiders went 16-2 in the Patriot League and are really dominating the conference at this point, and they scheduled up in nonconference play but got blown out at Arizona and Illinois. A close loss at Syracuse and road win at Vermont do provide some hope.

This is actually a pretty different team from last year's profile. That team depended heavily on 3s and great offense; this one is much better defensively, with likely lower variance and a higher floor. That might actually make Colgate more likely to hang around and cover a long spread but perhaps less likely to pull the upset.

Morehead St. (Ohio Valley Conference champion)

The Ohio Valley has never made the Sweet 16 but does have some history of pulling off big first-round upsets. Morehead St. beat Louisville as a 13-seed in 2011, and Murray State won as 13- and 12-seeds that same decade.

The best thing you can say about these Eagles is that they seem to think they belong on this stage. At least the athletic director does, since Morehead St. scheduled up and then some, playing Alabama, Purdue and Indiana in nonconference. The Eagles were blown out by 30+ in two of those but did come a point away from winning in Indiana.

That may not mean much, but Morehead St. shared the OVC regular season crown and was by far the best team in the conference by KenPom metrics, with both its offense and its defense inside the top 125.

That's probably all damning with faint praise, but there's just enough here to catch your Eagle eye.

Oakland (Horizon League champion)

Like the Colonial, the Horizon League used to be a reliable source of upsets — but then Butler left and took all its upsets with it. The conference is 0-11 since in the tourney proper, losing by an average of almost 17 points a game — not great.

Still, last year's Horizon rep Northern Kentucky won a play-in and lost by a respectable 11 points to 1-seed Houston, and Oakland — the Michigan one — is a pretty good version of a Horizon team.

Unlike so many of these other teams from low major conferences, the Golden Grizzlies are actually the conference 1-seed. The Golden Grizzlies expected to be here, and they scheduled accordingly. They lost competitive games to Illinois, Ohio State and Drake. They won at Xavier. They played Michigan State and Dayton too.

Nothing about Oakland's profile stands out a ton, but this team played a lot of close games and won't be afraid of any opponent.

The Golden Grizzlies have never won in the modern tourney, and they'd sure like to get one for 40th-year head coach, Greg Kampe. He's the longest tenured Division I men's basketball coach still actively coaching, and he'd be the toast of the opening round if he finally gets Oakland over the hump.