NCAA Tournament: History Says Fade the Public Against the Spread

Bettors who value historical trends will surely be fading the public against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. After all, it’s been massively profitable over the years.

The public has gone .500 or worse in eight of the last 13 tournaments dating back to 2010, including six straight dating back to 2017. Fading it has been particularly profitable in the early rounds. The public in the First Four, Play-In Game, Round of 64 and Round of 32 is a combined 35 games under .500.

Moreover, if there’s heavy action on a team ATS, history says to bet the other way. Teams with at least 60% of the bets against the spread are only 71-96-5 (42.5%) since 2016. A bettor placing $100 on those teams would be down $3,064 for a -17.8%.

Furthermore, if a team has a substantial amount of action ATS, trends point toward going the opposite way. There have been 13 teams who have had at least 80% of bets dating back to 2005, and they’ve gone 2-11. When 75% back them, they’ve gone 28-41-2 ATS.

Meanwhile, when it comes to betting the total, the public has done a better job backing the Under rather than the Over. The public has gone 65-47 (58%) to the Under over the past four tournaments while going 97-113-4 (46.2%) to the Over.

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