South Dakota State vs Iowa State | NCAA Tournament Odds & Pick

After a one-year hiatus due to the greatness of Max Abmas and Oral Roberts last season, Eric Henderson has South Dakota State back in the NCAA Tournament.

The Jackrabbits' reward is a date with their former coach, TJ Otzelberger.

Otzelberger's Iowa State Cyclones were unranked in the preseason, yet have defied those expectations all season en route to an undefeated home record and a Big 12 Tournament title.

Iowa State enters the NCAA Tournament as the nation's top-rated defense.

Seeing South Dakota State in the bracket after winning the Summit League Tournament again won't surprise many college hoops fans who are preparing to fill in their picks. But before writing those picks in ink, let's dive into what's different about this year's version of South Dakota State.

The success of Otzelberger's SDSU teams was primarily due to their offensive firepower. Interestingly, Otzelberger has shifted his identity with his personnel groups at Iowa State. His teams have molded into defensive powerhouses in Ames, with this year's version actually leading the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Henderson, the current coach of the Jackrabbits, will have a difficult time finding avenues to score against his predecessor.

The South Dakota State offensive potency of old is not exactly the same this year. Matt Dentlinger was an interior scorer on last year's team who has since graduated and moved on. Prior to Dentlinger, Mike Daum and Baylor Scheierman led a Jackrabbits offensive attack that consistently ranked as a top-50 offensive unit.

However, the 2023-24 team comes in a little behind that pace, ranking 134th in offensive efficiency.

Zeke Mayo, the Summit League Player of the Year, will be the focal point of Henderson's offense on Thursday, likely drawing Keshon Gilbert as his defensive matchup.

The Jackbunnies' defense is average at best and hasn't truly been tested against high-quality opponents this season. In November, South Dakota State played the only three top-100 opponents it would play all season: Kansas State, UCF and George Mason.

Defensively, the Jackrabbits struggled in those three opportunities, allowing 91, 83 and 73 points respectively.

None of those three teams turned out to be ultra-impressive offensively throughout the year — and the same could be said about Iowa State.

However, the Cyclones scored enough to win 16 games in the Big 12 this season and have plenty of options to strike fear into the Jackrabbits.

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Otzelberger has picked up right where he left off in Brookings since arriving in Ames. He inherited a Cyclone team that finished 2-22 in Steve Prohm's final season in 2021 and immediately turned things around.

Iowa State returned to the NCAA Tournament in 2022 as a No. 11 seed that went on to reach the Sweet 16. He has steadily improved each season, earning a No. 6 seed last season before entering the 2024 tourney as a No. 2 seed.

Iowa State's defensive pressure will be something the Jackrabbits can't possibly prepare for. I'd imagine Henderson will force his team to practice against six or even seven defenders to simulate the Cyclones' intensity. Still, in-game pressure and nerves are difficult to capture in a practice setting.

After becoming a leader last season in his freshman campaign, Tamin Lipsey elevated his game in his sophomore season. Lipsey isn't a dynamic scorer but has improved his shot-making skills this year on en route to earning first-team All-Big 12 honors.

Lipsey serves as Otzelberger's leader and coach on the court. The scoring he provides is just a small piece of the contributions he makes.

Gilbert was just a cog in the machine during his two years as a member of UNLV, where Otzelberger happened to coach after his time in Brookings. Now, as a member of the Cyclones, Gilbert is thriving even as the stakes get higher.

Gilbert was arguably snubbed from the All-Big 12 first team, as he has fit Otzleberger's defensive identity perfectly.

Even if Gilbert doesn't score a point against South Dakota State, his primary role in helping the Cyclones advance will be containing the Jackrabbits' biggest star in Mayo.

Iowa State's swarming defense is nothing like South Dakota State has seen this season. Despite all of the simulations Henderson may run in practice this week, nothing will prepare his team for the difficulty of facing the nation's top stop unit.

Turnovers will lead to easy offense for Iowa State, allowing the Cyclones to score more efficiently than they do in the half-court.

Freshman Milan Momcilovic also provides a shooting threat when Iowa State is forced to play in the half-court offensively.

I'm trusting the Cyclone defense to travel and stifle the Jackrabbits in this first-round matchup.

Pick: Iowa State -16

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