The second round of the NCAA Tournament starts on Saturday, with eight spots in the Sweet 16 on the line.
With that in mind, our staff has three picks to add to your betting card.
Read for NCAA Tournament predictions, including March Madness best bets for Saturday, March 21.
NCAA Tournament Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:45 p.m. | |
  | 5:15 p.m. | |
  | 8:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Louisville vs. Michigan State
Earlier this week, Louisville announced that it won't have the services of superstar freshman Mikel Brown Jr., but that doesn't mean the Cardinals can't cover and/or win this game.
In fact, our Action PRO projections think Louisville has a strong chance to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Action PRO thinks this line should be closer to +2.5, compared to the +4.5 spread that's circulating at the time of writing. That gives us a +6.8% edge on this play, one that provides value even without the services of Brown.
Don't forget that Louisville also has Ryan Conwell and Isaac MckNeely, who drilled seven triples in the Cardinals' opening-round win over South Florida.
Pick: Louisville +4.5
TCU vs. Duke
Our model is heating up as we're a strong 3-1 so far through two days of this tournament.
And we're headed back to another model-based total for this Saturday play.
Duke enters this matchup with one of the nation’s top offenses, averaging more than 82 points per game while shooting an efficient 49% from the field.
The Blue Devils' first-round win over Siena was played at a much slower pace (64 total possessions), but this game against TCU should look very different. Duke typically plays at a faster tempo (averaging about 72 total possessions per game), which should help unlock its scoring rhythm.
The Blue Devils have also been scoring reliably away from home, shooting nearly 50% from the field in neutral-site games and averaging 83 points in those settings. Much of that success is driven by Cameron Boozer’s efficiency inside (56% shooting), along with solid 3-point shooting as a team (~35%).
TCU adds to the case for a higher-scoring game. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 on neutral courts this season and have consistently been involved in higher-total NCAA Tournament games, with each of their last four tournament appearances finishing above 142 combined points.
TCU also creates extra scoring chances with offensive rebounds, which could be key against a Duke defense that sometimes leans more on shot-blocking than boxing out fundamentals.
With TCU allowing more than 72 points per game and Duke averaging over 81 points across it’s last 10 games, both teams have the scoring ability — and defensive vulnerabilities — to push this game past the 140-point mark.
Pick: Over 139.5
Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska
By Ryan Minion
I fully expect fireworks in this contest, one featuring two elite teams with very contrasting styles. The Commodores put their top-10 offense on the line while matched up with a Nebraska team that excels defensively.
The Cornhuskers are the higher seed in this matchup, yet Vanderbilt currently sits as a 2.5-point favorite. Mark Byington’s bunch is also the far more popular pick in this matchup.
There's no doubt the Commodores are an elite offense, boasting exceptional guard play in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, both of whom are natural scorers.
In addition to the aforementioned KenPom efficiency metrics, Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating also ranks Vanderbilt as a top-10 team in college basketball.
Though it's clear that Vanderbilt is remarkably efficient offensively, its offensive production relies heavily on the ability to convert from beyond the arc. As they say, Vanderbilt “lives and dies” by the 3.
Moreover, the Commodores face a Nebraska defense that loves to take away the perimeter, as opponents convert on fewer than 30% of their attempts from downtown (eighth in the country).
This is a matchup that will almost certainly be decided on Vanderbilt’s ability to knock down its jump shots.
On the other end of the floor, while largely praised for their defensive prowess this season, the Cornhuskers also thrive from behind the 3-point line.
Nebraska’s offense is knocking down 10.6 triples per contest, which ranks 16th nationally. In fact, the Cornhuskers are actually nailing more 3-pointers on average than their second-round opponent, as Vanderbilt ranks 47th in the country with 9.5 per contest.
Vanderbilt’s defense ranks just 76th nationally in 3-point field-goal percentage allowed and outside the top 100 in total 3-pointers made on average.
While most are backing the red-hot Commodores to advance, I'm relatively concerned about Vanderbilt's subpar perimeter defense, which just allowed McNeese to convert 10 times from downtown.
If Nebraska’s high-pressure perimeter defense holds, I think the Cornhuskers may advance to their first Sweet 16 in program history.
I feel pretty good about Nebraska catching 2.5 points, so I'm willing to take a shot on the contrarian 'dog to cover the spread in this South Region’s second-round thriller.
Pick: Nebraska +2
