The second round of the Big Dance continues on Sunday with a lot of intriguing matchups and eight more berths to the Sweet 16 on the line.
Our staff has you covered with four selections for the final day of the first weekend.
Read for NCAA Tournament picks, including March Madness best bets for Sunday, March 22.
NCAA Tournament Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:45 p.m. | |
  | 6:10 p.m. | |
  | 8:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Miami vs. Purdue
Miami played a de facto road game in the opening round of the Big Dance, beating Missouri in St. Louis.
Now, its reward is a matchup with the red-hot Boilermakers, who just won the Big Ten Tournament and beat top-ranked Michigan.
Instead of choosing a side, though, I'm targeting the over based on our Action PRO projections, which have this number up at 151.
With a grade of a B-, a +4.3% edge and a near-four-point buffer, the over is the proper pick.
Pick: Over 147.5
Kentucky vs. Iowa State
By Stuckey
This is basically a speculative bet on Joshua Jefferson not being available. If he can't suit up (and it didn't look promising after the game against Tennessee State), I'll be elated to have this ticket in my pocket.
He's arguably worth 4.5-5 points to the spread, in my opinion. He's that important on both ends of the floor for the Clones (there's a reason he's listed at No. 2 in the KenPom player of the year rankings, trailing only Cam Boozer), and if at full strength, he would pose significant matchup problems for the Cats' shaky pick-and-roll defense.
Iowa State's offense just becomes so much easier to defend without Jefferson in the lineup, while the Clones' depth and defense also takes a hit. Some of the on/off splits are pretty staggering.
I don't love this Kentucky team by any stretch, but I do prefer to back it as an underdog. The Wildcats should have enough scoring punch on the perimeter to keep this close — and even win outright if Jefferson is sidelined. Also, the recent emergence of Brandon Garrison certainly helps down low for Kentucky.
Psychologically, Kentucky can come into this game playing completely free as an underdog after its miraculous win over Santa Clara. Meanwhile, who knows where Iowa State is at mentally if it turns out Jefferson is actually lost for the season, which is certainly a possibility.
Lastly, Iowa State really struggles at the line (332nd nationally in free-throw percentage), which certainly could come into play late and swing a cover in Kentucky's favor.
Pick: Kentucky +5
Tennessee vs. Virginia
By Kyle Hunter
Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers easily took care of the Miami Redhawks on Friday — Tennessee’s physicality and defensive pressure were too much.
The Volunteers also caught Miami in a tough situational spot, as Miami put everything into its First Four game.
Virginia played very poorly against Wright State on Friday. The Cavs defense was not up to par, as Wright State got way too many open looks. Ryan Odom was disappointed in the defensive effort in that contest.
But can we trust Barnes? Barnes has been a money burner in the NCAA Tournament in the past. In fact, he is 14-25 ATS in his past 39 NCAA Tournament games. Barnes is 4-8 ATS in the Round of 32 in his past 12 games. He is also 2-8 ATS in his past 10 games with one day of rest as a favorite.
I think this is a buy-low spot for Virginia after their poor performance against Wright State. The Cavs' shot blockers should be able to slow the Tennessee frontcourt. The Tennessee backcourt has been turnover-prone in recent weeks.
These are two quality teams, but I trust Odom more than Barnes.
Pick: Virginia +1.5
UCLA vs. UConn
UCLA has been one of the top offenses this season, ranking 17th in adjusted efficiency. A big part of that success comes from its 3-point shooting, where it ranks 16th nationally and has the ability to score in quick bursts.
The Bruins can run into trouble on the defensive end, especially against the 3. They’re just 8-11 this season when opponents shoot better than 30.5% from deep.
That’s a potential issue in this matchup, as UConn has several players — Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins, Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball — who can all stretch the floor. If those shots are falling, UCLA may be forced into a faster, offense-first approach just to keep pace.
On the other side, UConn holds a clear advantage inside. Tarris Reed Jr. is coming off a dominant 31-point performance, and his presence should create plenty of easy scoring opportunities in the paint.
With both teams averaging 77 points per game and showing some defensive weaknesses, this game has the makings of a higher-scoring matchup that should clear the 136.5 total that's flashing on our model.
Pick: Over 136.5
