NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks: Bets for All 4 First Four Games

NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks: Bets for All 4 First Four Games article feature image
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Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Scott.

Our predictive analytics team has found NCAA Tournament player prop picks for every First Four play-in game on Tuesday and Wednesday night. Check out Sean Koerner and Nick Giffen's bets below.


NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks: Bets for All 4 First Four Games

Time (ET)Player Prop
6:40 p.m.
9:10 p.m.
6:40 p.m.
9:10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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Wagner vs. Howard

Tuesday, March 19
6:40 p.m. ET
truTV

Bryce Harris

Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)

By Sean Koerner

Harris has cleared this number 58% of the time in conference play while averaging 34.8 minutes a game. He’s likely going to play 38+ minutes here in the play-in game, which means he has a much higher floor in this market than usual.

This is also a plus matchup for Harris to rack up boards. Wagner is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, and it gets to the free throw line at one of the lowest rates in Division I. That’s going to set Harris up for more rebound attempts than usual and why we are projecting him closer to 9.5 rebounds.

I give Harris around a 70% chance to clear this, and it’s also worth sprinkling some on his alt rebound props like Over 9.5 at +245 (projected closer to 45%) and Over 11.5 at +650 (projected closer to 23%).

Pick: Bryce Harris Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)


Colorado State vs. Virginia

Tuesday, March 19
9:10 p.m. ET
truTV

Joel Scott

Under 13.5 Points (-140)

By Nick Giffen

UVA plays at the slowest pace in the nation and is top 15 in defensive efficiency. So, CSU's implied team total of just 61.5, 10 points lower than its conference average. Scott averaged 13.3 points per game in conference play, but I'd expect less on average against Virginia since there will be fewer available points.

Virginia also fouls at the 19th-lowest adjusted rate in the nation. Scott gets to the line at the 65th-highest rate of all players, so UVA’s low foul rate will particularly hurt his scoring.

When teams do score from the field on UVA, it tends to come from outside a bit more than inside relative to national averages. UVA allows 60.7% of non-free throw points inside the arc compared to the 62.5% national average. Also hurting Scott is that he gets 88.3% of his non-FT points from the inside.

Scott's usage has increased in the last eight games, but it's hard to tell if that's an aberration or indicative of higher future usage.

I'm projecting this closer to 68% to stay under 12.5 points if we use his long-term usage. I'm still projecting 57.1% to stay under 12.5 points with the higher usage rate. Under 13.5 points at -140 is OK at DraftKings, but that's slightly less of an edge thanks to the extra juice.

Pick: Joel Scott Under 13.5 Points (-140)


Grambling vs. Montana State

Wednesday, March 20
6:40 p.m. ET
truTV

Kintavious Dozier

Over 11.5 Points (-120)

By Sean Koerner

Dozier was the Tigers' leading scorer during the regular season, and I expect them to lean on him even more for the March Madness play-in game.

Montana State sets up as a pretty good matchup, specifically for Dozier as the Bobcats send their opponents to the free throw line at a high rate. That should benefit Dozier as he has the highest usage rate of the team and is an 80% shooter from the charity stripe.

Montana St. has also allowed opponents to shoot 54% on 2-point attempts this season, which is one of the worst rates in the league. Dozier leads the team in 2-point attempts, so this is another factor that should allow him to score a higher percentage of the team’s points.

We're projecting him closer to 13 points here with around a 63% chance to clear 11.5.

Pick: Kintavious Dozier Over 11.5 Points (-120)


Colorado vs. Boise State

Wednesday, March 20
9:10 p.m. ET
truTV

Eddie Lampkin

Under 0.5 Steals (-135)

By Nick Giffen

Lampkin has 11 steals all season, including a game with two and another with three. That means he’s had steals in just eight of 34 games (23.5%).

I think books are regressing his steal rate toward his career average, but that was while he played with TCU under a different system. He’s not being tasked with stealing the ball at Colorado, and we have a 34-game sample size to work with.

Boise State also presents a tough opportunity to rack up steals given. The Broncos play at a slightly slower pace than average and are 93rd out of 362 teams in the lowest steal rate allowed.

I’m projecting Lampkin to have zero steals around 70% of the time. This line should be closer to -250.

Pick: Eddie Lampkin Under 0.5 Steals (-135)


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