I hope you bet a lot of favorites in the Round of 64! It was chalk city, especially on Friday.
But it's time for the second round and my confidence rating selections.
Read on for our NCAA Tournament Predictions and second-round picks for this weekend.
NCAA Tournament Predictions & Second-Round Picks
Illinois vs VCU Pick
VCU came back from 19 points down to North Carolina on Thursday.
On the same day, Illinois coasted to a 45-point win over Penn.
VCU deserves a ton of credit for battling its way back in that first-round win, but this is a much tougher test.
Illinois is the second most efficient offense nationally. The Fighting Illini are averaging 1.318 points per possession this season.
Keaton Wagler is a sensational freshman who does a little bit of everything. Andrej Stojakovic is a slasher who can find a multitude of ways to get to the basket.
Illinois is the tallest team in the country, and that should matter a lot in this contest. VCU ranks just 150th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. If the Illini miss shots, they should get a lot of them back for second-chance opportunities — they rank third nationally in offensive rebounding rate.
VCU relies on getting to the line, but Illinois ranks first nationally in field-goal rate allowed. The Rams will have to make jumpers.
VCU is likely to push the pace, but I think it will be the Illinois offense that is piling up the points.
Pick: Illinois TT Over 81.5
Gonzaga vs Texas Prediction
I like to keep an eye on which coaches are the best on short turnaround in the NCAA Tournament.
Sean Miller has been one of the very best. Miller’s teams are 11-4 ATS with just one day of rest between the games. He has proven more than capable of getting his team ready with very little preparation time.
Gonzaga is the better team, but it's clearly not as strong on offense without Braden Huff. The Bulldogs have had single-digit wins over Oregon State, Pacific, and Kennesaw State over the past month.
Dailyn Swain is a difficult matchup for the Bulldogs. Swain is capable of taking over a game, and if his jumper is falling, Texas has a chance to win.
It's also worth mentioning that the Longhorns have played well on the road this season.
We’ve seen a First Four team have success many times in the past, and the Longhorns have a high upside. They admittedly have been inconsistent, and there is a real downside here, too, but I’m trusting Miller to have them ready to go and stay within the number.
Pick: Texas +6.5
Virginia vs Tennessee Best Bet
Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers easily took care of the Miami Redhawks on Friday — Tennessee’s physicality and defensive pressure were too much.
The Volunteers also caught Miami in a tough situational spot, as Miami put everything into its First Four game.
Virginia played very poorly against Wright State on Friday. The Cavs defense was not up to par, as Wright State got way too many open looks. Ryan Odom was disappointed in the defensive effort in that contest.
But can we trust Coach Barnes? Barnes has been a money burner in the NCAA Tournament in the past. In fact, he is 14-25 ATS in his past 39 NCAA Tournament games. Barnes is 4-8 ATS in the Round of 32 in his past 12 games. He is also 2-8 ATS in his past 10 games with one day of rest as a favorite.
I think this is a buy-low spot for Virginia after their poor performance against Wright State. The Cavs' shot blockers should be able to slow the Tennessee frontcourt. The Tennessee backcourt has been turnover-prone in recent weeks.
These are two quality teams, but I trust Odom more than Barnes.
Pick: Virginia +1.5
