The 2026 NCAA Tournament rolls on Thursday night with another 8 games filling out the evening slate.
Our college basketball writers came through with 4 March Madness best bets for this portion of the schedule, including picks for No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 UNC, No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 BYU, No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 8 Georgia and No. 15 Idaho vs. No. 2 Houston.
With plenty of hoops still to go, let's dive into our NCAA Tournament predictions and March Madness picks for Thursday night's college basketball games.
NCAA Tournament Predictions, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Thursday evening's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
  | 7:25 p.m. | |
  | 9:45 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
VCU vs North Carolina Pick
By Greg Waddell
I’m taking VCU outright here.
I don’t love the press numbers, but since Caleb Wilson’s injury, UNC hasn’t been the same. The Tar Heels rank 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 50th on the defensive side since that injury. They just look like an over-seeded team.
In the NCAA Tournament, you have to play the value, and I can’t justify UNC being favored based on the way it closed the season. This looks like a live 'dog situation.
I think VCU big man Lazar Djokovic is capable enough to at least match up with Henri Veesaar. Djokovic can stretch him out a bit and help the Rams keep pace on the scoring end. That matchup gives me some comfort on the offensive side.
More importantly, I like VCU’s guards.
UNC's Derek Dixon has had a solid season and has been a big reason it has handled pressure defense effectively. However, he's also a true freshman who’s about to play in his first NCAA Tournament game and will have a lot on his plate without his superstar.
Conversely, Nyk Lewis looks like he’s trending the right way for VCU, especially after his 18-point, 11-rebound performance in the A-10 Tournament Championship win over Dayton.
Ultimately, UNC just hasn't been the same since the injury to Wilson, so I'll take the value with the Rams outright.
Pick: VCU ML +130
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Texas vs BYU Pick
By Sean Paul
Texas snagged a tight win over NC State to advance to the main bracket and face No. 6 seed BYU.
However, I don't have much faith in Texas on offense.
It doesn't have a point guard, as evidenced by its 43% assist rate (348th nationally). Most of the shots are dumping it to Matas Vokietaitis, tough mid-range 2s by Tramon Mark or Dailyn Swain's iso drives.
If the Longhorns can't get to the foul line or crash the offensive glass, they’re in trouble.
Now, the Cougars clearly aren't as good without Richie Saunders. Since he went down, BYU ranks 45th nationally in Torvik’s efficiency ratings, compared to 33rd on the season.
But I'm here to give you some optimism about this matchup for BYU. In the nine games without Saunders, BYU ranks 25th nationally in offensive efficiency and 119th in defensive efficiency.
The good is that the Cougars are still a strong offense. But how can BYU fix the defensive issues?
I feel like some of it correlates to variance, as teams are shooting a jarring 41% from 3 against it across those nine games. Matchup-wise, Texas can't exploit BYU's defensive issues as others can.
The Longhorns don't have much shooting.
Camden Heide is a driller, having shot 45% on 98 attempts from deep. Outside of him, the occasional hot-shooting night from Jordan Pope can carry them, but Swain and Mark are players BYU will dare to shoot. Swain makes less than one 3-pointer per game, while Mark is just a 32% shooter from deep.
The line is sitting at BYU -2.5, and I'm taking the favorite. The Cougars will have the best player on the floor in Dybantsa, and their defense is better than it has performed of late.
Pick: BYU -2.5
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Saint Louis vs Georgia Pick
By Evan Abrams
Thursday night's Saint Louis vs. Georgia game in the NCAA Tournament fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Seed, 3s, Turnovers, Volume III," this system lives inside the pressure cooker of the NCAA Tournament, where small seed gaps signal comparable teams and efficiency determines survival.
When the seed difference is tight, the market leans on reputation, but the quieter indicators tell the real story.
An offense that shoots well from 3 can stretch a defense that already concedes a higher field-goal rate, creating clean perimeter looks that can jump-start short runs in a matter of possessions.
At the same time, limiting turnovers in this setting is important because it denies opponents transition chances that often decide neutral-floor games.
As nerves slow, tempo and half-court execution become key.
The team that spaces the floor, values the ball and exploits defensive inefficiency gains an edge that the spread doesn't fully capture, turning disciplined shot selection and ball security into consistent covers when the stakes are highest.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
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Idaho vs Houston Pick
By Kyle Hunter
Big Sky teams have gone 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
Teams in this conference often struggle against strong, physical defensive groups, as the league is filled with good offensive squads that are accustomed to free-flowing games with optional defense.
Houston is the definition of a physical, defense-first power-conference opponent. That's going to be a brutal matchup for the Vandals.
Houston ranks 352nd nationally in adjusted tempo and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Cougars will play this game in the half-court and put the clamps on.
For what it’s worth, the best defense Idaho played this season was Notre Dame, which posted a 13-18 record.
Houston’s JoJo Tugler has the length and athleticism to bother the Idaho offense.
With that being the case, the Vandals won't generate many solid first-shot looks, and they don’t add many second-chance buckets on top of that.
Houston is more than willing to blow out low-major squads, beating SIU Edwardsville by 38 in the first round last year and Longwood by 40 two years ago.
Pick: Idaho Team Total Under 56.5
